The Pre-Start
Northern Star reported 1H FY26 NPAT $714m (up 41%), underlying free cash flow negative $320m, declared a 25cps interim dividend and held net cash of $293m (NST) +4%. Hemi first production pushed back to 2030
South32 reported H1 FY26 underlying earnings of US$435m and profit after tax of US$464m, declared a fully‑franked interim dividend of US 3.9c and raised its capital management program by US$100m to US$2.6B (S32) +4%
Albemarle announced it will idle the remaining operating train, Train 1, at its Kemerton lithium hydroxide processing plant, effective immediately (ALB.NY)
First Quantum reported net earnings of US$25m (adjusted earnings US$5m) for the 4th quarter, on EBITDA of US$464m. It produced 100kt Cu, with elevated costs due to Zambian power costs. It signed a new US$2.2B term loan & RCF (FM.TO)
Paladin sold 1.96Mlb U3O8 at US$70.5/lb for US$138m revenue & reported a US$7m net loss. It holds US$278m cash after a US$110m debt restructure (PDN)
Snowline Gold intersected intervals in geotechnical drilling at Valley, including 347m at 1g/t from 3m (SGD.TO)
Robex has achieved commercial production at Kiniero in Guinea after its first shipment of 6.3koz of gold on 11 Feb (RXR)
G2 Goldfields claimed a new discovery at the Sands target area, returning hits of 24m at 2.5g/t Au from 37m (GTWO.TO)
Founder Metals drilled 6m at 21.4g/t from 49m at its Upper Antino target in southeastern Suriname (FDR.V) +8%
Black Cats’ underground drilling at Paulsens returned multiple extensional intercepts outside the current resource, including 5m at 14.3 g/t from 15m (BC8)
Syrah said the US Department of Commerce finalised AD/CVD rates of at least ~160% on Chinese graphite AAM imports, subject to an ITC determination and 5-year application if affirmed (SYR)
Gorilla has received key drilling permits for Comet Vale and secured adjacent northern tenure (GG8)
CZR’s RC program at Top Camp (Croydon) returned assays including 51m at 1.3g/t Au from 93m and 4m at 5.1g/t Au from 78m (CZR)
Carnaby reported shallow Trek 1 results at Greater Duchess: 7m at 8.9% CuEq from 35m and 13m at 5.1% CuEq from 26m (CNB)
Torque's extensional drilling at the Paris gold project returned 20m at 5.8 g/t gold from 222m (inc. 7m at 13.5 g/t from 225m) (TOR)
Novo updated the 2026 Exploration Target at Belltopper gold project to 2.1Mt–3.1Mt at 6.7–8.9 g/t (NVO)
LinQ reported 95m at 2.14g/t AuEq, including 49m at 3.78g/t AuEq, from a hole 160m south of the Gidginbung open pit (LNQ)
Yandal’s late 2025 Arrakis RC program received assays from all 17 holes and mapped the Arrakis structure in fresh rock over 1.2km of strike (YRL)
Austral has identified a heap leach remine opportunity at Mt Kelly with an inferred MRE of about 22.6Mt at 0.20% Cu (~45kt residual copper) (AR1)
MEX’s maiden drilling at the Waitekauri gold project intersected 94m at 0.46 g/t Au (including 3.9m at 5.53 g/t) (MEX)
South32 has appointed Sinead Kaufman as an independent non-exec director (S32)
High Grade It
The world’s biggest nickel mine is set to have its permitted output slashed by the Indonesian government (Bloomberg) This is how cycles turn… nickel +2%
Gold slipped after robust US jobs data reduced expectations that the Fed will move quickly to cut interest rates, with the S&P wavering (Bloomberg) Remember: Good news = Bad news…
Trump directed via an executive order US$175m to upgrade coal power plants in five states (FT)
Hedging isn’t about prediction. It’s about capital preservation in all future scenarios. It’s about avoiding unnecessary equity dilution when you are building a new mine, or insurance against the company killing “emergency raise” next year, when this year’s “fully funded” wasn’t quite full enough.
Hedging isn’t even about commitment, when put options have never been cheaper, as a percentage of the operating margin protected, than they are right now.
The future might be unknown, but your costs and plans and the price of protecting them are not. Not certain it's different this time? Get in touch with Noah's Rule about a Risk Review.
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Peel will be acquired by Aeris via a scheme valuing Peel at about $214m, with shareholders to receive $0.234 per share in Aeris scrip and NewCo demerger shares and hold approximately 20.5% of Aeris (PEX) Call at 9am perth time
Zanaga Iron Ore signed a binding term sheet with Red Arc Minerals for up to US$150m into its project subsidiary: US$25m to fund to FID for 20%, plus a US$125m option to take 87.5% and grant ZIOC a 1% NSR royalty (ZIOC.L)
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
Rumours are circulating that commodity trader Gerald Group is poised to assume control of the Soremi copper zinc mine in the Republic of the Congo within days, wresting it from China National Gold Group.
After injunctions in Hong Kong and BVI courts, momentum appears to be shifting from legal theatre to reality.
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Portfolio Review - Feb 2026 (Le Shrub) Sold his S32; “Silver crashed by 40%. It’s cute to think that it can’t spread to other commodities”
Inside the Bank of England's gold vaults (YouTube) 6-min vid. A look at 400,000 gold bars…
Arjun Murti’s Super-Spiked (YouTube) AI to Power to Metals to Oil? Interesting view of copper-oil relationship over 25 years
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Today’s Top Tweet
Devil’s in the Detail
We briefly wrote about the US dynamics with the vanadium market yesterday. But closer to home, the equities are showing even more movement.
It’s not lost on us that less than a week ago, the WA state government cut the royalty on vanadium product to 2.5%, effective immediately.
AVL chart per Focus
Why does it feel like something is brewing here?
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