Aussie Miners on Edge over Higher Tax Threat

Kinterra edges CAML for New World, Alcoa pauses all Canadian growth over tariffs

July 21, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • South32’s quarterly result was mostly in line with expectations, achieving 102% of FY25 guidance, with costs expected to match. Sierra Gorda CuEq production increased by 20% over the year, while US$350m was returned in FY25 (S32)

  • Regis produced 87koz at an AISC of $2,812/oz, with cash and bullion closing at $517m, with $150m added over the quarter. FY26 guidance: 350-380koz @ $2,610-2,990/oz AISC + $240m-$275m in various capex (RRL)

  • Pantoro produced 25koz for the quarter at an AISC of $1,991/oz, building cash & gold by $43m. FY26 guidance posted at 100-110koz @ $1,950-2,250/oz (PNR)

  • Rox updated the MRE at Youanmi to 2.2Moz, proving out the underground resource, with the grade lifting to 6g/t (RXL)

  • Meteoric shared its PFS over Caldeira, outlining capex of US$443m for NPV8 of US$835m (US$110/kg NdPr) or US$109m (spot), breaking even at US$48/kg NdPr. The project aims to produce 4.2ktpa of NdPr and 130tpa of DyTb.

  • Wildcat shared results from metallurgical drilling, returning a hit of 87m @ 1.32% Li2O from 91m (67m estimated true width) (WC8)

  • Deep Yellow shared a Tumas update, with project financing continuing and procurement nearing completion (DYL)

  • AIC Mines produced 3.2kt Cu & 1.6koz Au at an all-in cost of A$4.90/lb Cu sold for net mine cashflow of $16m. It closed the period with $61m in cash (A1M)

  • Aurelia produced 7.3koz Au, 0.3kt Cu, 7.5kt Zn & 4.9kt Pb over the quarter, with cash increasing by ~$3m to $110m, after $15m in investment (AMI)

  • Patriot has claimed it hosted the world’s largest pollucite-hosted caesium pegmatite resource, with 693kt in indicated across Rigel and Vega (PMT)

  • Aeris produced 11kt of CuEq over the quarter at an AISC of A$4.50/lb, with cash & receivables closing at $50m ($28m unrestricted) (AIS)

  • Caprice shared results from 17 holes at the Island gold project, where it intercepted 11m at 17.3g/t from 170m (CRS) Up 27%

  • Lunnon shared a scoping study on its Baker & Foster nickel projects, with Baker generating an NPV8 of $50m while Foster would breakeven (at current nickel prices) (LM8)

  • Firebird secured 2 patents for its lithium manganese iron phosphate preparation methods, with additional filings underway (FRB)

High Grade It

  • Resources businesses fear Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ economic roundtable could propose higher taxes on mining & energy to pay for cutting other taxes, after the industry was omitted from the 24-member invite list (AFR), with WA’s peak business lobby warning the industry could be pushed “further over the edge” (West)

  • Alcoa has paused work on all its growth projects in Canada due to Trump's tariffs, according to CEO Bill Oplinger (Bloomberg)

  • Mining exec’s & former officials have voiced concerns about the highly unusual US gov’t deal to buy into the country’s only producing rare earths miner (FT)

  • China vowed on Saturday to step up a crackdown and toughen law enforcement against smuggling of strategic minerals seen as vital to national security (Reuters)

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Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Regis has been flirting with the idea of acquiring the remaining 70% of Tropicana from its JV partner, AngloGold Ashanti, with no price put forward (AFR)

  • Regis has acquired the Southern Star prospect from Great Southern Mining for $4m upfront plus $5m contingent (GSN), the first regional consolidation from RRL in a long while?

  • BHP has sold its stake in the $1.4B Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania at a loss as it tries to cut spending, with Lifezone npaying up to US$83m (AFR)

  • Brightstar and Aurumin entered into a scheme implementation deed, AUN shareholders will receive 1 BTR share for every 4 AUN shares, implying consideration of ~$0.12/sh and $60m for AUN (BTR)

  • New World has recommended shareholders accept Kinterra’s 6.7c cash offer (payable if its interest exceeds 30% by July 24), with CAML advising it doesn’t intend to match the revised offer (NWC) A takeover battle to be remembered!

  • Tivan & Sumitomo have agreed on an MoU for the Sandover fluorite project, to explore development, financing and operations of the project (TVN)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Larvotto completed a US$105m senior secured bond issue to support the restart of the Hillgrove antimony and gold project in NSW (LRV) 12% coupon

  • Horizon Gold raised $12m to advance Gum Creek’s feasibility study, expected in the first half of next year (HRN)

  • Brightstar raised $50m at $0.48, announced concurrently with the consolidation of Aurumin (BTR)

  • IperionX is in a trading halt, raising A$70m at A$5.00/sh (AFR)

Word on the Decline

  • We find Street Talk’s discussion of a potential Regis acquisition of the other 70% of Tropicana interesting

  • What the column misses is the remaining open pit life left at Trop as well - we think open pit mining there will wrap up around ~2029 then it becomes solely underground itself

  • Regardless, 100% ownership of Trop would undoubtedly be a ‘portfolio improver’ for Regis

  • Which reminds us, whatever happened to the royalty dispute between South32, Regis and IGO over Trop?

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In the Weeds

  • Why It’s Time to Invest in Mining (Spotify, Apple) Interview w/ BlackRock’s Evy Hambro

  • The problem with building a potash mine when it is -40 degrees (Australian)

  • Ex-Rio Tinto chief has an anonymous guardian angel (AFR’s Rear Window)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Yep, out of the official DOE account… And a meme for good measure:

Devil’s in the Detail

So when did the Albion Process™ become a “conventional processing route”?

Horizon Gold presentation

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The 9 Red Flags in Exploration Investing (Roland Gotthard)

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