Bellevue Trims Outlook, Capstone Dents Debt

White House looks to expand rare earth price floor, Alcoa warns over WA approvals

August 01, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Cameco reported net earnings of C$308m for Q2, producing 4.6Mlb while selling 8.7Mlb at an average price of US$57/lb. Westinghouse added C$306m in free cash flow (CCJ.N) Down 4%

  • Bellevue reveals FY26 guidance of 130-150koz gold at A$2,600-2,900/oz (decrease from ~150koz guided in April) and has recut its reserve to 1.3Moz @ 4.7g/t (BGL) site visit today will be interesting

  • Alcoa delivered net income of US$164m in the quarter (up from US$20m in Q2 24) and realised impact from the Ma’aden JV divestment (AAI) WA EPA approval timeline “no longer achievable”

  • Capstone Copper produced 57kt at a C1 cost of US$2.45/lb for operational cash flow of US$212m. Net debt fell by ~US$97m to US$692m (CSC) guidance 220-255kt Cu reiterated, higher production expected H2 as Mantoverde processes less transitional ore. Stock up 6%

  • Jeff Quartermaine will retire as Perseus’s MD and CEO on 30 Sep and former Newcrest COO Craig Jones will replace Jeff (PRU) hats off to Jeff on a phenomenal innings, one of the industry greats

  • Endeavour produced 647koz at an AISC of US$1,281/oz over the first half, for record free cash flow of US$514m (EDV.TO)

  • Ivanhoe reported adjusted EBITDA of US$123m and profit of US$35m over the quarter, with KK producing 112kt of copper (IVN.TO)

  • Aura Energy entered 2 agreements for the sale of uranium oxide con from Tiris, one with a US-based nuclear utility, the other with a uranium trader (AEE)

  • Antipa shared step-out results at Minyari, extendingknown mineralisation with hits including 41m @ 1.8g/t gold and 0.18% copper from 98m (AZY)

  • New presentations were shared by Bellevue & Burgundy

High Grade It

  • Top White House officials told a group of rare earths firms that they are pursuing an approach to boost U.S. critical minerals production & curb China's market dominance by guaranteeing a minimum price for their products (Reuters)

  • Trump unleashed turmoil in commodity markets, wrongfooting traders who had positioned for a more punitive tax on copper imports, the Comex-LME premium collapsing (AFR)

  • Major lithium producers (PLS, MIN) claim Pilbara Ports has abandoned a $630m infrastructure promise, leaving the future of mineral exports hanging in the balance (Australian)

  • MinRes is pushing to pry open a private agreement between Chevron and the State Government’s Pilbara Ports Authority as part of a rolling stoush (West)

  • Alcoa has warned a planned strike at its Portland smelter could jeopardise production & threaten 800 jobs after workers rejected a 12% pay rise (Australian)

  • Vale reported on Thursday a 24% decline in its second-quarter net profit from a year earlier to $2.12B, while still outperforming analyst expectations (Reuters)

  • Southern Copper is in talks with Mexican President Sheinbaum’s administration to resume mining investments in the country valued at $10.2B (Mining.com)

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Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad said he would be “pragmatic” about selling the firm’s metallurgical coal assets in QLD amid a dispute with Peabody (Miningmx)

Peabody’s update on the matter

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Osisko Development announced a US$195m financing at US$2.05/share, with an attaching warrant exercisable at US$2.56/share (ODV.N)

  • Syrah completed its $70m raising, with ~86% of institutional entitlements being taken up (SYR)

  • Laramide is raising $12m at 60c (LAM)

  • Galan secured a binding commitment for a $20m placement from existing shareholder The Clean Elements Fund (GLN)

  • AIC Mines wrapped up its SPP, scaling back orders to its $10m cap (A1M)

  • Silver Mines and Macro Metals are in trading halts pending announcement of capital raisings

Word on the Decline

  • This morning, sell-side and buy-side analysts are departing on one of two site visits: Bellevue or Pilgangoora from Perth

  • Bellevue is the spicier one with plenty of different views in the market, and this morning’s guidance downgrade adds fuel to the fire

  • While there’s no update on the status of the strategic review, our intel is that the (potentially only) remaining interested party is OceanaGold.

  • Imagine if they end up back on the ASX after delisting two years ago…

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In the Weeds

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Devil’s in the Detail

From Alcoa’s management discussion…

And didn’t even have to look hard for this beef

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