• Rio has told customers its flagship product would contain less iron in the future, confirming a gradual decline suspected to dent in federal coffers (AFR)

• BHP and Rio Tinto agree that China is showing real confidence despite the trade war with the US, while doubting a return to trade’s glory days (Australian)

• Chinese rare-earth exporters are asking the gov’t to clarify whether they’re allowed to sell to the US, after the trade ceasefire was called (Bloomberg)

• The corporate regulator plans to call former Kidman CEO Martin Donohue as a witness in its insider trading case against his brother-in-law (AFR)

• An Aurizon train laden with iron ore from Karara broke down yesterday and blocked a key transport route linking inland WA to Geraldton Port (West)

• A group of hedge funds that sued the LME over the 2022 nickel crisis have dropped their legal action after similar arguments made in separate proceedings were rejected (Bloomberg)

• Fortescue laid off about 90 staff working on its hydrogen projects, spread across its Queensland electrolyser facility and a hydrogen unit in WA (Australian)

• Exxaro has offered US$640m for South African manganese assets, in a complex deal where it’ll buy into groups & mines. It’s buying 74% of a holding unit that owns 50.1% of Tshipi, taking a 19.9% stake in Jupiter (which owns the remaining 49.9% in Tshipi). It’s taking a 51% stake at Mokala, and a 9% stake at Hotazel. Depending upon pre-emptive and tag along rights, the deal could cost between US$494-803m (EXX.JSE) ASX plays OMH & JMS bounced 13% & 40% respectively

• Regis & United Tractors remain the last 2 in the bidding process for Ravenswood (Australian)

• Rio and Sumitomo firm up Winu plans, with the definitive agreement marking the start of “broader strategic partnership” (MNN)

• Newmont decreased its stake in Discovery Silver from 14.95% to 8.64% (MNN)

• Aurumin is in trading halt pending a transaction on non-gold mineral rights at its Sandstone & Johnson Range projects (AUN)

• Highfield has signed a Letter of Intent with a subsidiary of China Minmetals (Qinghai) for a US$300m equity subscription, which would make it HFR’s largest shareholder with controlling power (HFR) HFR secured a ~€1m stand-by loan facility from EMR Capital + a maturity extension to its convertible notes (HFR)

• Foran Mining launched a $350m capital raising as construction at McIlvenna Bay is ~32% complete, while capex has been re-estimated to C$1.08B vs C$886m prior (FOM.TO)

• Prediction time… If the sales process is such that only two bidders are submitting binding bids in the final round, no one is blowing their brains out on value here. If Regis is the last one standing, we highly doubt there is an equity raise. They don’t need to pay much!

• And if Ravenswood goes the way of Regis, then Focus’ Laverton almost certainly goes to Genesis, which would be disappointing for Regis because surely they would want to know if they were in with a shot on Laverton before pulling the trigger on Ravenswood.

• Now what if the black-horse, ‘United Tractors’, interest in Ravenswood isn’t as firm as advertised? What would you do if you were Regis?

• Strictly Boardroom: Eight informal rules of mineral markets (MNN)

• Tony Deden on State of the Markets pod (Spotify, Apple) An interview with one of the world’s great unknown investors

• Why Trump’s Ukraine resources deal will take a decade to produce results (FT)

• War and Gold with Kwasi Kwarteng (Library of Mistakes podcast)

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