Boss Tanks 39% After Grim Forecast

Bellevue bounces on quarterly details, Adriatic downgrades production amidst takeover

July 28, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Boss shares are down 39% on open following revised FY26 guidance (1.6Mlb U3O8) and indication that nameplate will no longer be achievable. 349klb of U3O8 were drummed in the quarter (BOE)… Call at 9am

  • Perseus reported 121koz of production at US$1,417/oz AISC, growing its cash & bullion balance by $26m to US$827m (+ US$118m in investments). Its $100m buyback is 73% complete (PRU)

  • Bellevue produced 39koz at an AISC of $2,253/oz over the quarter. It processed 287kt at 4.5g/t with recoveries at 94%. FY26 guidance will be shared in August (BGL) Leading the goldies up 5%

  • Develop shipped first concentrate over the quarter, while the plant achieved a throughput rate of 850ktpa+. 106kt of development & stope ore was mined, with ramp-up to steady state on track. Mining services saw $51m in revenue. (DVP)

  • Adriatic produced 1.7Moz of AgEq (up 23% QoQ) while milling 99kt. FY25 production was revised down from ~12.5Moz down to ~10Moz AgEq (ADT)

  • Stanmore produced ROM coal production of 4.9Mt & saleable production of 3.2Mt. 2025 guidance reaffirmed. Net debt moved from US$146m to US$99m (SMR)

  • Peninsula has completed an offtake contract book reset, terminating 5 of 6 contracts for US$6.6m in compensation. It expects to produce yellowcake over the next quarter (PEN)

  • Kasiya claimed success in its latest coating optimisation testwork, with all target specifications for discharge capacity and first cycle efficiency achieved (SVM)

  • 2 Brazilian development institutions have selected Viridis & Ionic to progress its proposal for potential financial backing of Colossus (VMM, IXR)

  • Gorilla released assays from Mulwarrie, including a hit of 7.4m @ 4.9g/t from 187m (GG8)

  • Strickland shared met testwork from Gradina bulk samples, achieving average recoveries of 89.9% using standard flotation methods (STK)

  • Unico claimed a new discovery at La Morocha, with an intercept of 69m at 163g/t AgEq from 124m (USL)

  • Black Cat shared underground drilling from Paulsens, targeting resource growth and near-mine production optimisation (BC8)

  • Nimy has been served with a writ by Lind Partners, who previously entered into a placement with the company, who’re claiming $3.7m + costs (NIM)

High Grade It

  • Three miners who were trapped behind fallen debris at a Canadian gold mine are safely back on the surface after what Newmont called a “meticulously executed” rescue plan (Bloomberg)

  • WA miners are targeting an exemption to the “same job, same pay” laws amid its economic roundtable ‘snub’ (West)

  • A fresh wave of senior executive departures is heaping pressure on Trafigura’s commitment to buy back its employees’ shares, just as a profit boom shows signs of faltering (Bloomberg)

  • Miners and market regulators are poised to back away from plans to include higher environmental, social and governance standards in the updated JORC code (AFR)

  • Grounded Construction to build $60m workers’ village in South Hedland (BN)

For drillers that don’t disappoint and results that speak for themselves, get in touch with Kalgoorlie’s finest, K-Drill.

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Regis is understood to have backed out of the contest to buy Bellevue, with the due date for bids passing, though Dataroom has reported domestic and international buyers remain interested (Australian)

  • The Federal gov’t and other creditors of mineral sands miner Strandline are facing a $300m wipeout even with the sale of the collapsed company’s mine to Japanese group Iwatani (West)

  • Dataroom has speculated that the time could be right for Westgold to make a move on New Murchison Gold, a company in which it holds a 15% stake (Australian)

  • Tivan has received a non-binding & conditional Letter of Support from EFA and progress to NAIF’s DD phase for financing of Speewah (TVN)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Viridis signed an MoU with two Brazilian asset managers for a cornerstone investment of up to US$30m (VMM)

  • Asara raised $25m at 5c to advance Kada in Guinea (AS1)

  • Australian Strategic Materials raised $13m (ASM)

Word on the Decline

  • We think it’s about time to pay attention to one of our favourite M&A regions once again - the Murchison

  • As Meeka is making strides, pouring first gold earlier in the month and New Murchison Gold is on track for first ore sales to Westgold in September, we think it’s worth running the ruler over a few corporate opportunities in the region again

  • It would make good sense for Westgold to buy out New Murchison Gold and with a dominant shareholding already, it’d be difficult for any other corporate to move here.

  • Great Boulder is strumming up an early cashflow opportunity by mining Ironbark. The processing options aren’t limited to Westgold’s Bluebird and Meeka’s Andy Well plants. The sleeper in the region is TSXV listed Monument Mining who is considering restarting the Burnakura plant. We think a merger between Great Boulder and either of Meeka or Monument could make good sense

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • The new gold rush: price surge offers up chance to make big money (AFR) Centred on Saturn’s Apollo Hill

  • James Litinsky (MP Materials CEO) Interview (All In) 13-min chat on DoD investment, mining in USA 

  • Twiggy’s hydrogen pipe dream costing taxpayers $600m (AFR Read Window) FMG has agreed to pay back taxpayer funds “where required” (West)

  • China & Copper — When Relationships Break & Nobody Notices (PauloMacro)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

This morning Boss Energy shares have opened down 39% on the back of guidance that achieving nameplate no longer appears achievable on the back of wellfield delineation of East Kalkaroo 

The U3O8 grade for East Kalkaroo (~640ppm in the 2016 MRE vs Honeymoon 1295ppm) is a substantial step change already. The conference call will be interesting.

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