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China Policy Shift Sparks Metals Rally
Vale cuts output on weak market conditions while Vault's early numbers disappoint
The Pre-Start
Vault reported preliminary Q4 and FY25 results, selling 96koz and 385koz, respectively. It paid $31m in stamp duty over the quarter, leading it to close with $686m in cash (VAU) Down 6%, weakest Aussie gold stock this morning
Black Cat finished FY25 with $55m in cash and bullion, with the group producing 16.5koz over the quarter. It’s guided for 19-23koz to be produced over the Sept Q (BC8)
AIC Mines exceeded its FY25 production guidance, having produced 12.9kt of copper and 6koz of gold over FY25 (A1M)
NRW was awarded a contract by Rio for work at its Brockman Syncline 1 mine development, valued at ~$167m (NWH)
Wia reported its best-ever intercept at Kokoseb with 50m at 12g/t from 188m, ahead of an updated Mineral Resource Estimate due later this month (WIA) Up 11% on the open
Ganfeng completed its acquisition of Mali Lithium, a few days after shipping its first batch of lithium concentrate from Goulamina (1772.HK, LLL) now holds 100% of Mali Lithium
High Grade It
Glencore may make a grim call on its loss-making Aussie smelters shortly as the Quad condemns critical minerals market manipulation (Australian)
Vale lowered its forecast for iron ore agglomerates production, as the market struggles with oversupply & reduced demand for high-quality products (Reuters)
Trump’s flagship spending plan will cut support for US production of critical minerals, removing a 10% tax credit on miners’ production costs (FT)
Traders that piled into precious metals (including platinum & silver) at the start of this year are the year-to-date winners, while those tempted by the spike in bauxite & alumina late last year have suffered a brutal reversal (AFR)
French uranium miner Orano said its majority-owned JV with Niger, SOMAIR, is on the verge of bankruptcy as a result of export restrictions (Reuters)
A Yukon Independent Review blamed the heap-leach failure at Victoria Gold’s Eagle mine last June on a saturated, low-permeability layer & poor drainage (NM)
A production issue at ExxonMobil’s Gippsland facility sent gas prices to nearly $20/GJ, straining heavy users and the national market (Australian)
BHP has signed contracts with COSCO for the charter of two ammonia dual-fuelled Newcastlemax bulk carriers, to be delivered in 2028 (Reuters)
Mineral smuggling from eastern DRC into Rwanda has reached "unprecedented levels" amid the occupation of the region by Rwanda-backed rebels (Bloomberg)
You know Diggers really actually starts the evening of Sunday 3rd August? At the Topdrill Sundowner. Be there - spots are limited - grab your ticket pronto
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Kinterra has escalated its battle for New World by applying to the Takeovers Panel to thwart the plans of its UK competitor, with market experts tipping a Kinterra win according to Dataroom (Australian)
Dataroom wrote on a UBS note which explored the idea that Coronado may sell a stake in Curragh, which could free up US$100-150m (Australian)
Many Peaks entered a binding earn-in agreement with a privately held Ivorian group, leading to a 125% increase in the mineralised corridor held at Ferké, requiring it to spend US$2m for 80% across stages (MPK)
Alcoa announced the closing of the previously reported sale of its 25.1% interest in the Ma’aden JV for stock worth US$1.2B and $150m in cash (AAI)
Rattlin’ the Tin
Antipa is raising $30m at 60c a share to fund drilling at Minyari Dome to a DFS (AZY)
Word on the Decline
Overnight JPM sombered on their lithium price deck (dropped 2026 by 15%) which on their numbers, values MinRes’ share of Wodgina at $1.4B and their share of Mt Marion a mere $160m. Bald Hill gets a zero.
We know MinRes is testing the market right now offering up to 49% of their lithium business to prospective bidders. If they can manage a firm offer from someone using a LT $1,350+ SC6 price deck, hats off to them - take the cash!
We do wonder if there’s much appetite to be a joint venture partner with them right now. And if a serious bidder does get comfortable partnering with them at a reasonable price, then we suspect the CSI contracts have to be on the table
Lithium business aside for a moment- the volumes out of Onslow in June are really strong and beat what we thought possible (2.27Mt shipped)
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In the Weeds
Forgotten Precious - Part IV by Le Shrub (Shrubstack) Platinum
Gina Rinehart’s adoration of the SAS runs in the family (AFR’s Rear Window)
Anthony Bolton interview with Nicolai Tangen (IGC) Understanding the sentiment behind a stock, following insider buying & being contrarian
Met coal prices jump on Indian buying and China industry policy shift (Coal Trader Substack)
Today’s Top Tweet
Finchy has literally highlighted two numbers in a table, and somehow it still feels profound. Pro.
Devil’s in the Detail
Cheatsheet for the ASX punter this quarterly reporting season.

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