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- FMG Sets New Record, Scraps Hydrogen Projects
FMG Sets New Record, Scraps Hydrogen Projects
Capricorn go shopping for Warriedar, Duncan Craib departs Boss
The Pre-Start
Fortescue posted a record 55.2Mt shipped (198Mt for FY25), at a cost of US$16.29/wmt (US$17.99/wmt FY25), marking the first annual decline in FY20. Its Arizona hydrogen & PEM50 projects will not proceed (FMG) Up 5%
Northern Star delivered $536m in underlying free cash flow while meeting its revised guidance range. The June Q saw 444koz produced at $2,197/oz. FY26 guidance is for 1.7-1.85Moz at $2,300-2,700/oz AISC + growth capital of ~$2.2B. KCGM mill expansion is tracking to plan (NST)
Lynas produced 1.5kt of NdPr (2.2kt TREO) over the Q, with cash down ~$103m to $166m. Additionally, it signed an MoU with battery manufacturer JS Link to develop a rare earth permanent magnet value chain in Malaysia (LYC, MoU)
Boss announced Duncan Craib will step down as MD & CEO effective 30 Sept, while he’ll rejoin the company next year as a NED. Matt Dusci will replace him (BOE) Down 5%
First Quantum reported US$400m in EBITDA, while net debt decreased to US$5.4B. It produced 91kt of copper, while shipments from Panama have begun (FM.TO)
MAC produced 10.6kt of copper at a total cash cost of US$2.17/lb. 2025 guidance was maintained at 43-48kt. Operational free cash was US$42m (MAC)
Mt Gibson sold 0.63Mwmt of iron ore, culminating in a $13m outflow for the Q. FY26 guidance is for 3-3.2Mwmt at a cash operating cost of A$80-85/wmt (MGX)
Resolute published an initial inferred MRE for Bantaco West of 5.8Mt at 0.97g/t Au for 179koz, and for Bantaco South with 2.2Mt @ 1.2g/t for 87koz (RSG)
Black Cat produced 17koz while selling 10koz over the quarter, with cash, bullion and investments closing at $56m (BC8)
Orla Mining reports an “uncontrolled material movement” event occurred today on the pit wall at its Camino Rojo mine in Zacatecas (OLA.TO)
St Barbara is continuing to study options to separate its Atlantic gold ops, now in the final stages of receiving proposals (SBM)
Galan is in halt pending a gov’t approval-related announcement (GLN)
New presentations were published by Ramelius, Minerals 260, Capricorn, Catalyst, 29Metals, & Aurelia
High Grade It
Scott Morrison & Andrew Forrest have engaged in a war of words over China, with the former PM saying the CCP will be pleased with the FMG chairman’s attacks on his Liberal govt’s handling of Beijing (Australian)
Fortescue is forecasting stronger growth in the next 12 months as production costs fall, while Iron Bridge problems persist & it calls time on its hydrogren projects (AFR)
Newmont paused operations at its Red Chris gold mine in western Canada following an accident that trapped 3 miners underground (Bloomberg)
A Glencore memo has braced hundreds of workers for shutdown at Mount Isa copper smelter & refinery, saying gov’t support is too little too late (Australian)
Why Mt Isa could soon be wiped off the map as Glencore considers shutting down its operations (Daily Mail)
Freeport expects to bring in an additional US$1.7B in US copper sales per year thanks to a premium that’s showing up for domestic prices (Bloomberg)
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency has granted $45m toward a green iron project run by ASX-listed Calix (AFR)
Impala’s Zimbabwe unit is tripling its processing capacity and plans to handle concentrates from other mining firms at its new smelter (Bloomberg)
Score yourself a K-Drill jacket to fight off the cold this winter - click here to enter the draw!
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Capricorn Metals is acquiring Warriedar Resources for an implied $0.155/sh in CMM shares, a $189m equity valuation for WA8, and a 29% premium to last (CMM) Warriedar’s Golden Range lies ~90kms from Capricorn’s Mt Gibson
Botswana’s government wants to take a controlling stake in De Beers, the country’s mining minister said, casting another shadow over the sale (FT)
Altius Minerals has sold 2/3 of its Silicon Gold 1.5% NSR to Franco Nevada for US$250m cash plus $25m contingent (ALS.TO) Altius holding onto 0.5%… even the RoyaltyCo’s need to keep some schmuck insurance! Premium of ~9% to TFPM transaction in late April
Zijin Mining is the front-runner to acquire Barrick’s Tongon gold mine in northern Ivory Coast for up to US$500m (Reuters)
Word on the Decline
The list of African Gold producers migrating their way towards an ASX listing is rapidly growing:
Robex debuted earlier this year
Orezone has raised $65m for an ASX IPO of CDIs already and will start trading here early next month
And we believe the latest gold miner to buy the bankers’ pitch of re-rating by dual-listing is Pan African Resources!
Why we mostly think the merit or re-rating based on exchange listing is dubious - BUT there’s something to be said for the absurd effects of index inclusion in Australia which sees indiscriminate buying from the swaths of captive capital in our superannuation funds…
Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
We’ve vilified China as an ‘enemy’; Anthony Albanese is right to make friends (Australian - Oped written by Andrew Forrest)
Today’s Top Tweet
Devil’s in the Detail
If you scroll through the WA8-CMM scheme implementation deed, the companies entered a confidentiality agreement four months ago on March 25th . That’s around the same time that Warriedar started pretty heavily promoting its antimony potential.
Plenty of people (including us!) raised an eyebrow at the antimony promotion. But given the eventual outcome of being acquired here at a premium, we have to hand it to the WA8 team for maximising every bit of value in the lead-up to the deal.
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