The Pre-Start
NEM ($167B) - Newmont posted Q1 net income US$3.3B and US$3.1B FCF, authorised an extra US$6B buy-back, and declared a US$0.26 dividend
FCX.NY (US$88B) - Freeport cut is 2026-27 guidance for Grasberg as a result of material handling requirements, with copper & gold output down ~20%. The 150ktpa cut equates to ~0.6% of global supply | ▼ 12%
FMG ($65B) - Fortescue shipped 48.4Mt iron ore in Q3; cash -US$0.5B QoQ; FY26 shipments maintained, Iron Bridge guidance cut to 9–10Mt
TECK.NY (US$30B) - Teck beat earnings estimates, with strong performance at Trail, QB2 and HVC. Copper output was 140kt for the quarter
VAL.J (A$33B) - Valterra reported a 7% increase in Q1 PGM production to 744koz, driven by Amandelbut & higher purchase of concentrate. Guidance reaffirmed
PLS ($19B) - PLS produced 232kt spodumene in March quarter; cash +$501m (including US$100m Canmax prepayment) to $1.5B with $520/t unit cost; FY26 guidance reaffirmed
YAL ($9B) - Yancoal’s 2025 annual report showed $1.4B operating EBITDA and $440m NPAT, ending with $2.1B cash. It declared an 18.4c fully franked dividend
IGO ($6.7B) - IGO cut FY26 Greenbushes spodumene guidance to 1,375–1,425kt and lifted unit costs to $380–420/t; underlying EBITDA $119m, net cash $327m | ▼ 11%
VUL ($1.7B) - Vulcan began construction of the Lionheart lithium chemicals plant, targeting 24ktpa lithium hydroxide from 2028
ORE ($1.6B) - Orezone produced 39koz gold in Q1 and closed Hecla Quebec, adding Casa Berardi; 2026 Bombor guidance maintained at 160-180koz
SBM ($811m) - St Barbara approved FID to restart ore processing at Touquoy by end-2026
EUR ($420m) - European Lithium is in trading halt pending an announcement relating to a media speculation | More below…
MM8 ($330m) - Medallion is assessing interim gold processing at Cosmic Boy, with a May decision and potential start in Q4 CY26
KGL ($247m) - KGL’s BEM for Jervois shows NPV₈ $839m post-tax with $439m capex, C1 US$1.65/lb and commissioning in H1 2028
BHM ($241m) - Broken Hill produced 79koz silver in the March quarter, generated $2.4m operating cashflow and closed with $44m cash as Main Lode ramped, with Pinnacles to start in June
AEE ($143m) - Aura Energy's Haggan deposit has been proposed by the Swedish Geological Survey for national interest designation
AT4 ($102m) - American Tungsten & Antimony joined the Defense Industrial Base Consortium, accessing DoW programs, with multiple DoW/DOE funding applications pending
ARN ($97m) - Aldoro achieved 98.96% strontium extraction in HCl leach tests at Kameelburg and will update the MRE to include SrCO₃
LM8 ($77m) - Lunnon Metals' Lady Herial pit is now cash flow positive, invoicing $9.9m in the quarter against $5.5m costs
CLA ($52m) - Celsius won an initial ruling denying Sodor/PMR interim orders over MMCI after a missed payment, & is seeking emergency orders to block them exercising rights
NMT ($33m) - Neometals outlined an exploration target at Utah Brine of 94–325Mt MOP and 1.9–6.5Mt LCE
M4M ($32m) - Macro Metals was appointed exclusive mining services contractor for 36 months by Metal Logic's ROM (OpCo) across its Pilbara tenure
High Grade It
Teck warns of rising costs at Chile copper operations amid fuel supply issues (FP)
Fortescue to spend $1B more on green energy as shipments hit record (AFR)
Morgan Stanley cuts 2026 gold price forecast to down to US$5,200/oz (Mining.com)
The WA gold sector contributes $20.5B to the Australian economy, supporting 111k jobs, following gold’s run (Kal Miner)
China Nonferrous is set to restart Luanshya copper mine in Zambia after 20-year halt (Reuters)
Blue Cap Mining backs miners with capital + hands-on expertise. From startup to steady-state, delivering tailored open-cut mining solutions that get projects moving.
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
ASM ($435m) - Australian Strategic Materials received FIRB approval for Energy Fuels' 100% acquisition schemes, with securityholder and Court approvals still required
MEK ($427m) - Meeka will acquire gold tenements near Mt Holland for $20m cash plus 117.8m shares, excluding lithium rights and assuming a $25/oz royalty
Anglo American has at least 3 potential buyers for its Australian steelmaking coal business in Stanmore, Mitsubishi & BUMA (Bloomberg)
Myriad plans all-share merger with Rush Rare Metals for Copper Mountain stake (Mining.com)
Saudi’s Manara Minerals will pivot away from global mine equity M&A and toward JVs, trading partnerships, and debt-for-offtake structures (Bloomberg)
Rattlin’ the Tin
Vale Indonesia secures US$750m loan for Bahodopi, Pomalaa, and Sorowako projects (Mining.com)
Eramet plans €500m capital raise, seeks new investors amid financial struggles (Reuters)
Word on the Decline
We agree with Koala on the outlook for gold deal activity over the next 12 months. But we think quality developers are the place to be. That's our lesson from G2 and Rupert’s huge premium deals. Funnily, B2 Gold trades like a developer with a P/NAV ~0.58x.
If Kinross can’t get a deal done with IAMGold, don't rule out a tie-up between them and Evolution. Two companies in precariously similar positions (lofty multiples, limited near-term production growth).
One day, we think it will happen.
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
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Ownership & Oversight
PDI ($4.7B) - Helikon bought $180m of Predictive Discovery on-market at $0.965, lifting its stake to 11.8%
RSG ($3.1B) - Helikon bought $100m of Resolute shares, lifting its stake to 15%
ALK ($2.3B) - GMT Capital sold US$16.5m of Alkane shares, cutting its stake to 5.1%
AMI ($449m) - Aurelia reappointed Lyn Brazil as NED
POL ($303m) - FIL bought $7.2m of Polymetals, becoming a 5.1% holder
ERM ($280m) - Weiss AM bought $13.5m of Emmerson shares, becoming a 5% holder
MM1 ($220m) - Tribeca became a substantial holder in Midas at 5.1% after ~$4m of buys, including $3m via placement
CYM ($214m) - PT Karunia Bara Perkasa bought $1.4m of Cyprium, holding 9.2%
AWJ ($59m) - Auric appointed Gareth Solly CEO and executive director, with MD transition planned for Dec 2026
Devil’s in the Detail
When you publish a 64-page quarterly, occasionally you “cook it” like Newmont, the largest gold miner in the world, did this morning.
Newmont managed to run the exact same paragraph twice, yet still didn’t answer the one thing we went there for. See, we caught wind that there was going to be an ongoing shut at Cadia with ~2 weeks of ROM stockpiles left before potentially temporarily halting production.
Page 39 Newmont Quarterly
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