The Pre-Start

  • AAI ($19B) - Alcoa produced 636kt aluminium and 2.2Mt alumina in Q2, posted US$4B revenue, and cut 2026 alumina guidance to 9.5-9.6Mt (shipments 11.5-11.6Mt) | ▼ 5%

  • PRU ($6.4B) - Perseus's Yaouré gold mine is reconciling +24% vs reserve and will spend US$34m on FY27 drilling to extend mine life

  • RRL ($5.0B) - Regis put FY27 guidance to 360–400koz gold at AISC $3k–$3.4k/oz and growth capex $250–270m; separately, it cut 30 Jun cash-and-bullion by $26m after 4,391oz were miscounted | ▼ 9%

  • CXO ($825m) - Core Lithium said Axiant Resources lodged an IPO prospectus to raise $8m–$10m at $0.20, with Core to hold 28.6–33.3% post-listing | ▼ 6%

  • AUC ($466m) - Ausgold's Katanning Gold project in WA had its EPA review document cleared for 21-day release, with three mining leases granted | ▼ 5%

  • BCN ($327m) - Beacon produced 5.2koz gold in the June quarter, closed with $20.7m cash and 4.8koz gold bullion, and guided to 5-6koz in September

  • CYM ($243m) - Cyprium targets first copper cathode production at the Nifty Copper Complex, WA, in the September quarter 2026, and closed with $68.5m cash

  • HGO ($227m) - Hillgrove Resources approved development of Emily Star as a third underground front at the Kanmantoo Copper Mine, SA, budgeting $20–22m and lifting 2026 major capital guidance to $15–17m, with stoping targeted in H2 2027 | ▼ 8%

  • CVV ($137m) - Caravel Minerals completed the mining DFS for Caravel Copper, supporting 597Mt at 0.24% Cu reserves and planning conventional open-pit development

  • RML ($103m) - Resolution gained FAST-41 coverage for Golden Gate at Horse Heaven, Idaho; the plan allows 340 drill holes and 2,000ft trenching

  • NNL ($68m) - Nordic Resources reported 54.6m at 0.47 g/t Au, 0.18% Cu from 291m at Kopsa, extending mineralisation and suggesting depth continuity

  • TNC ($63m) - True North Copper retracted previously announced reserves, production target and forecast financials for the Cloncurry Copper project pending further studies

  • DRX ($60m) - Diatreme Resources closed cash $2.7m (+$1.2m QoQ) after $2.1m from the Cape Flattery silica sale; JV cash totalled $4.5m, taking group cash to $7.2m

  • AGR ($40m) - Aguia reported channel sampling up to 128.5 g/t Au over 0.2m at the Santa Barbara gold project in Colombia | ▲ 5%

  • ILT ($31m) - Iltani Resources' XRT ore sorting at the Orient Silver-Indium project, Qld, delivered 96% mass rejection and x13.2 upgrade on a low-grade sample | ▲ 9%

  • DGR ($29m) - DGR Global: Takeovers Panel accepts Samuel Holdings' undertaking not to deal in its shares until proceedings conclude

  • PL3 ($28m) - Patagonia Lithium's Well 8 at Cilon reached 200m; packer tests logged up to 706L/h flow and SG 1.06

  • FRB ($27m) - Firebird received $1m from ARENA after completing ADP Milestone 1, with a further $1m contingent on assembly and commissioning milestones

High Grade It

  • Reality bites BHP’s copper boom as volumes set to slump (AFR) BHP forecasts up to 15% drop in copper production

  • We can outlast BHP, say striking Labor-affiliated unions (Australian)

  • British gov’t nationalises British Steel to secure domestic steel production amid losses (Mining.com)

  • Northern Star to power KCGM with renewables, impacting Goldfields energy supply (BN)

  • BHP defies China pressure on iron ore (Australian)

  • Nickel prices surge 2.8% on Indonesia supply risks and easing Fed rate hike expectations (Bloomberg)

  • China's rare earth export restrictions threaten $6.5T of Western industry, warns IEA (Reuters)

  • Fidelity International plans to rebuild gold holdings, anticipating a bull market by 2027 (Bloomberg)

  • Hitachi Machinery and Pronto sign MoU for open mine automation solutions (Mining.com)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • GFG Alliance fails to sell Liberty Bell Bay smelter, forcing closure and increasing Australia's reliance on Chinese imports (Australian)

  • Xi Jinping urges Kazakhstan to deepen mineral & energy cooperation, accelerate key projects (Mining.com)

  • FMR ($23m) - FMR Resources entered a trading halt pending a material acquisition announcement

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • CBE ($242m) - Cobre raised $72.4m at $0.30 in T1, to fund Sierra Atacama upgrade and debt repayment; T2 requires shareholder approval | ▼ 6%

  • OCN ($81m) - Oceana Metals completed T2 of its placement, issuing 35.1m shares at $0.36 and 1.9m broker shares to Canaccord Genuity (Australia) | ▼ 7%

  • KNB ($22m) - Koonenberry Gold entered a trading halt pending a capital raise

  • GRL ($15m) - Godolphin priced the Narraburra rare earths spin-out at $12.5m via Matrix Critical Minerals, with ~1-for-17 in-specie distribution to holders

Word on the Decline

So this morning Regis comes out with FY27 guidance, and the stock sells off 9%. Call us suspicious of the timing here. Why not wait for the quarterly so you can defend the guidance on the analyst call?

Got Word on the Decline? Reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.

Ownership & Oversight

  • BGD ($206m) - Barton Gold directors Graham Arvidson and Christian Paech exercised options issued in lieu of fees into 43.7k shares

  • WTM ($184m) - The Bank of Nova Scotia sold $2.7m of Waratah Minerals shares, falling below 5%

  • ZNC ($52m) - Forrestania Resources lifted its stake in Zenith Minerals to 39.9% via off-market acceptances under its takeover offer

  • PNN ($50m) - Power Minerals appointed Israel Benchemhoun as a US-based non-executive director

  • JAL ($36m) - Jameson directors Michael Gray, Steve van Barneveld and Michael McDonald acquired 1.7m shares via the $0.055 placement, totalling $95k

  • ORP ($35m) - IsoEnergy acquired $1.5m of Orpheus Uranium shares via an off-market placement at $0.062, taking its stake to 6.9%

In the Weeds

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Devil’s in the Detail

  • In case you've lost count of BHP's Jansen project capex blowouts and impairments, we thought we'd quickly run the numbers…

  • BHP has now had 3 capex blowouts and 2 impairment charges for Jansen

  • The combined Stage 1 + 2 capex is now US$15.3B vs US$10.6B originally

  • The two impairments total ~US$4.4B

  • Plus, how’s this. A slight $26m delta from RRL…

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