The Pre-Start
Nickel Industries expects Dec Q adj-EBITDA of US$35m-US$40m after a delayed RKAB reduced Hengjaya ore sales, causing approximately US$45m foregone sales and US$18m contractor standby costs (NIC)
Catalyst reported a new high-grade zone beneath the Cinnamon resource with mineralisation along ~400m of strike intercepts, including 18m at 9.7 g/t and 30m at 2.9 g/t (CYL)
Magnetic Resources’ Lady Julie gold project resource increases to 39.1Mt containing 2.24Moz, with over 80% in the Indicated category (MAU)
Syrah said the Cure Date for Tesla’s alleged offtake default was extended to 16 March 2026 (SYR) the final qualification deadline was also extended subject to US DOE consent
Tungsten Mining released an illustrative spot-price analysis for the Mt Mulgine project, showing post-tax NPV8 rising to $3.3B (6 Mtpa aggressive case) (TGN)
29Metals reported resource extension drilling at Golden Grove, including 22.3m at 3.6% Cu at Tryall (29M)
Delta updated the Mt Ida lithium project MRE to 14.8Mt at 1.21% Li2O, 170ppm Ta2O5 and 0.42% Rb2O, reported over 90% rubidium recovery in the mica pre-float and cash of $54m, listed investments circa $108m (DLI)
Larvotto said Hillgrove refurbishment is on budget & schedule with commissioning in mid-2026, while Blockade copper mine due diligence is ongoing (LRV)
Lunnon Metals’ Lady Herial has received FID Board approval following the feasability study last week (pre-tax operating FCF of $40.4m at $6,250/oz) (LM8)
29Metals reported resource extension drilling at Golden Grove, including 22.3m at 3.6% Cu at Tryall and 42.2m at 9.5% Zn at Oizon (29M)
Australian Gold and Copper reported 33m at 264g/t AgEqat Achilles, extending mineralisation with more assays pending (AGC)
Talga has executed a non-binding development agreement with V4Smart (co-owned by Porsche), to develop & qualify its graphite anode (TLG)
St George reported new diamond drilling at Araxá, including 99.1m at 5.62% TREO from surface outside the MRE and 1m at 22.4% TREO at 66m (SGQ)
Sky Metals reported multiple tin and silver intercepts at the Tallebung tin project, including 3m at 604 g/t Ag and 0.68% Sn from 24m (SKY)
Decmil, Macmahon’s subsidiary, has been awarded a $120m Western Hill bulk earthworks contract at Rio’s West Angelas (MAH)
Fourth Sail reduced its holding in Core Lithium from 7.7% to 6.66% (CXO)
High Grade It
A near-quadrupling of lithium prices over the past 6 months has buoyed hopes that the swath of mines shuttered during the extended downturn will reopen (AFR) Was this really an extended downturn?
Rare earth product exports from China declined in Dec compared with the previous month, as investors monitor heightened tensions with Japan (Bloomberg)
China’s $7T cash pile is shifting into stocks and gold (Bloomberg)
Mercuria paid almost no tax on profits of more than $1B in the 12 months through September (Bloomberg)
China has received its first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou mine in Guinea (Reuters)
Tronox gags ‘whistleblower’ but fails to kill web page (BN)
Investors slashed their bullish bets on silver to the lowest in 2 years before the White House refrained from import tariffs on critical minerals that include the precious metal (Bloomberg)
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Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Gina Rinehart has formed a JV with Saudi Arabia’s state mining company in the hunt for major gold deposits in the kingdom (Australian)
BlueScope is facing mounting pressure to defend its $2.8B property portfolio valuation as expectations build for a revised takeover bid (Australian)
DRC’s state miner Gecamines has proposed acquiring Chemaf SA and then bringing in a new majority shareholder, as interest in the copper & cobalt producer intensifies (Bloomberg)
Investigator completed the sale of its 25% interest in the Molyhil tungsten–molybdenum project to Tivan (IVR)
Rattlin’ the Tin
West Wits requested a trading halt pending an announcement about a proposed capital raising (WWI)
Metallium is in a trading halt pending an announcement about a strategic US capital raising (MTM)
Riversgold raised $2.15m via a placement of 215.0m shares at $0.01, with MEGA Resources subscribing 100.0m shares, and reported drill results including 8m at 5.81 g/t Au from 46m at the Northern Zone gold project (RGL) stock up 26%
Word on the Decline
We are in awe of the commodity moves over the last month. Silver. Tin. Platinum. Copper.
If this is what happens when we stop publishing, I think we’ll take another month off.
Let 2026 be a banger for you all. We are ready for the next phase of the commodity bull market.
Volatility makes deals hard. Give us a day to restock our rumours and check back tomorrow.
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Ivan Glasenberg’s wealth tops $21B on Glencore-Rio mega-merger talks (AFR)
Commodity Meme Top? GAG™️Phase 2 Update (Le Shrub’s Shrubstack)
Beijing pours cash into Belt and Road financing in global resources grab (FT) flagship infrastructure financing up 75% in 2025 to US$213B
Hong Kong ‘Value’ Billionaire Puts Quarter of His Wealth in Gold (Bloomberg)
Tin price bubble spells toil and trouble for global industry (Reuters op-ed)
What 150+ Large Mining projects Reveal About CAPEX Overruns, Part II (Kenfucius)
China-Japan RE Dejavu; Russian Navy's RE Dependency; US-Delusions; Ramaco's Rotten Berries (TREO)
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Devil’s in the Detail
Newsflow can be many things… Including re-running spot px through the model 2 months after the study dropped
