The Pre-Start
Rio Tinto produced 84.1Mt of Pilbara iron ore, 204kt of copper & 16.4mt of bauxite. Guidance remained unchanged on all commodities except bauxite, where it was lifted. Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up remains on track (RIO) Up 3%
Paladin quarterly showed U3O8 output increasing to 1mlb, realising a price of US$67/4/lb and costs of US$41.6/lb. Cash & investments closed at US$269m and US$80m in debt, with ~A$20m of SPP funds incoming (PDN)
Catalyst has been granted approval for its exploration tunnel at its Four Eagles “Boyd’s Dam” project (CYL) Up 12%
Black Cat signed an ore purchase agreement for up to 165kt, with a JV between BML Ventures & Gibb River (100kt) and MEGA Resources (65kt) (BC8)
Deep Yellow’s drilling at its S-Bend prospect hit 8m at 332ppm eU3O8 from 1m, with further drilling to follow (DYL)
Ballard’s exploration drilling program at Mt Ida has been completed with a best hit of 8m at 1.8g/t Au from 30m at Astro (BM1)
AIC’s resource definition program confirmed mineralisation with a best hit of 6.8m at 1.8% Cu, 0.3g/t Au & 1.5g/t Ag from 274m at Jolly Shoot (A1M)
Stellar’s first wedge hole at Severn has intersected a 25m wide zone of tin mineralisation grading 0.38% Sn from 539m (SRZ)
Benz hit 79m at 4.4g/t gold from 534m at Glenburgh (BNZ) Up 17%
Brightstar produced 7koz over the quarter, with the next processing campaign at GMD’s Laverton mill scheduled for early November (BTR)
Broken Hill Mines completed expansion diamond drilling with a best hit of 7.9m at 921g/t Ag, 0.1% Cu, 0.7g/t Au from 57m at Pinnacles (BHM)
Waratah extended mineralisation 150m down plunge at Spur Zone, hitting 7m at 6.5g/t Au from 287m (WTM)
African Gold’s diamond drill exploration programme intercepted 16m at 13.2g/t Au from 257 at Blaffo Guetto (A1G)
Directors Keith Spence and Xiaoping Yang resigned from the IGO board (IGO)
Franklin emerged as a 5% shareholder in Medallion (MM8)
High Grade It
Prices for Australian iron ore have surged to an 8-month high, with the biggest exporter, Rio Tinto, saying a “front-loaded” global economy was stoking demand before the full impact of a trade war is felt (AFR)
Silver prices touched an all-time high above $52.50/oz, as a historic short squeeze in London added momentum to a rally (Bloomberg)
Amid the shortage in the physical silver market, a number of Indian asset managers have halted all new investments into silver ETFs (ZeroHedge)
Gold broke through $4,100/oz for the first time, hitting another record high on renewed U.S.-China trade tensions (Reuters)
Rare earth stocks extended gains as fresh tensions over China’s exports of the critical minerals fueled bets (Bloomberg)
Australia is formulating a plan for its critical minerals reserve that will focus on sales of future production, limiting the need for a physical stockpile (Reuters)
Robert Friedland warned that rising geopolitical tension is contributing to a “breakdown in the international order” with far-reaching consequences (FT)
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
JP Morgan will make direct equity investments of up to US$10B into strategic industries that support US economic security, including critical minerals, as part of a US$1.5T initiative (JP Morgan) huuuuuge numbers here
Capstone announced a US$360m investment from Orion for a 25% interest in Santo Domingo, with US$225m payable on FID, a US$75m matching contribution & up to $60m in contingent (CSC) Should be able to cover the remaining US$400m of spend from cash flow
Rattlin’ the Tin
Brazilian Rare Earth received firm commitments to raise A$120m at $4.86/share to fast-track its rare earth projects (BRE)
Boab Metals received firm commitments in a two-tranche placement to raise A$50m at an issue of $0.40/share (BML)
Barton Gold raised $17.5m, with Franklin Templeton leading the placement (BGD)
Theta Gold Mines completed a placement, with the first ~$20m received (TGM)
Word on the Decline
Two quick observations from steeply climbing charts:
ASM up ~100% in two days is trading like Trump Bucks are incoming…
Iluka’s short interest is climbing like a cap raise is incoming…
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Gold rally helps lift top stock picker returns to 141% in one year (AFR) On John Deniz, mentions MEK, KCN, SBM, SSR Mining, Equinox
The Iron-Dollar Crack: BHP’s Quiet Surrender to the Yuan (Travis Ricciardo)
MAGA muscle exposes weak point in rare earths opportunity (AFR op-ed)
Were you forwarded this email from someone else?
Today’s Top Tweet
PENTAGON GOES ON MASSIVE MINERAL SHOPPING SPREE — BUYING $500 MILLION OF COBALT, $245 MILLION OF ANTIMONY, AND $100 MILLION OF TANTALUM TO COUNTER CHINA’S DOMINANCE IN CRITICAL SUPPLY CHAINS!
— #First Squawk (#@FirstSquawk)
12:35 PM • Oct 13, 2025
Anyone else pinching themselves that this is real life and not a dream?
Devil’s in the Detail
Zijin’s market cap just raced past Rio Tinto’s. And it’s now on the heels of BHP.
Wake up, the West will no longer claim the “world’s largest mining company”…
Catch up on our latest episode
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Gold Goes Vertical. We Hunt for Value (Ben Richards)
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