The Pre-Start
Freeport posted operating income of US$1.9B for Q3, on production of 912Mlb of copper & 287koz of gold (FCX.NY) Investors inferring that the preliminary Grasberg restart plan remains the base case, as changes would’ve been mentioned
MP Materials’ quarterly losses grew as it stopped selling to China. It produced 721t of NdPr, leading to revenue of US$54m & an overall $42m loss. It expects to be profitabile next quarter (MP.N) Down 5%
Lundin Mining raised its full-year copper guidance by 4% (to ¬325kt) on stronger Caserones performance, while paying a CAD 2.75c dividend (LUN.TO) Up 8%
Nutrien’s Q3 report showed adjusted EBITDA of US$1.4B and net earnings of US$500m. It expects higher global potash demand next year on big crop use this year & tight supplies (NTR.TO)
Sibanye’s production came in over expectations on PGMs & gold strength, with adjusted EBITDA jumping 198% to US$560m year on year, offset by operating costs rising (SSW.JO)
Investor Cove Capital will develop a tungsten deposit in Kazakhstan with the state-owned JSC Tau-Ken Samruk under a Trump-backed deal (COVE)
Canyon reported construction & haulage upgrades continue, mining mobilisation is set for Q1 2026, with Stage 1 development fully financed (CAY)
Aurum reported 18m @ 3.93 g/t Au from 200m at Boundiali’s BDT2 deposit, with drilling expanded to 12 rigs, ahead of Q1 2026 MRE (AUE)
Caravel signed a non-binding MOU with Adani’s Kutch Copper to explore project & company investment, offtakes & funding options to advance a 26’ FID (CVV)
Great Boulder’s regional AC drilling at Side Well returned multiple new gold targets and extended Eaglehawk north by 500m (GBR)
Unico Silver reported assays from 21 holes (3,587m) confirming silver‑gold mineralisation defined over c.725m strike and open at depth La Morocha (USL)
Tanami reported the Central Tanami MRE has increased to 31Mt at 2.8 g/t for 2.8Moz, including 11Mt at 3.3 g/t (1.2Moz) at Groundrush (TAM)
High Grade It
Rio’s $35B Simandou mine, which is expected to add 60mt of iron ore supply, could reduce government revenue by $10.5B as mining tax income falls (AFR)
Gold Fields increased the gold price used in reserves & resources (to US$2k & US$2.3k), helping drive a 3.1Moz reserve increase at Tarkwa (MMX)
Iron ore is headed for its longest run of daily losses since August as China's steel industry heads into the low season (Bloomberg)
Albemarle dashed hopes of a WA processing plant revival at Kemerton (AFR)
China didn’t publish gold data for the latest quarter as it usually does in October, prompting speculation it may have ceased publication altogether (Reuters)
Vedanta is transferring its key Zambian copper mine to a US-based entity as it seeks to benefit from Trump’s push to bolster the domestic mining sector (FT)
The US added copper, silver & uranium to a government list of critical minerals, which now totals 60 minerals (Bloomberg)
Our Question For You
Our industry is full of undisclosed conflicts. They are everywhere. From day one, we wanted Money of Mine to be the opposite. Independent, unconflicted, and calling it as we see it. The most important thing to us has always been staying aligned with you GCs.
To do that, we’ve deliberately avoided talking about our own positions. And when stocks we own have come up, the trademark ding ding ding made sure you knew we were conflicted. We’ve always been hesitant to “talk our book.”
Lately, we’ve been asking ourselves: is it actually more valuable to be openly transparent about our own positions? Rather than avoiding mentioning stocks because we hold them, would you actually prefer if we explained why we own them, openly and honestly?
And it occurred to us that we’ve never asked our audience that question before. Which version of Money of Mine would you rather see?
#1 – Complete Independence: Stay objective above all else. Rarely mention our own positions. Focus on analysis, not our portfolio.
#2 – Skin in the Game Transparency: Be upfront about what we own, what we’re buying and selling, and why. Add context by sharing our own exposure.
Which version of Money of Mine would you rather see?
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Traditional owners have rejected claims their royalty deal stands in the way of BHP selling the prized asset within its unwanted WA nickel business (Australian)
Coal-railer Aurizon is considering other ways to monetise its below-rail assets, after infrastructure investors shied away from the opportunity (Australian)
Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s top potash producer, is considering a sale of its phosphate business (Mining.com)
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
The historically troubled 2Mtpa Kirkalocka mill is roaring back to life, hungry as ever. Last time it couldn’t stay fed and ended up in administration when Adaman racked up sizable debts.
Kirkalocka’s new private owner is Gylden, which is owned by an affiliate of Värde Partners - who purchased the distressed debt.
Gylden appears to be hunting for ore across the Midwest and Murchison. We’ve seen two public deals already: (1) Rumble has an MOU to treat their Western Queen gold resource through Kirkalocka (2) Scorpion struck an MOU for their Pharos project as well (despite no resource yet). Other deposits might become relevant as well, namely Odyssey’s Tuckanarra, and we wonder if Yalgoo can shake out of RMS? We even heard a rumour that Gylden had penned a toll treating deal to Warriedar before the Capricorn deal firmed up too…
There are lots of moving parts with the Midwest and Murchison gold players. Even Monument, with its own small mill on C&M, could be relevant again. They’re making a bit of money from Malaysia. And the other player to watch is Westgold, who is actively divesting some of its ‘non-core’ mines (Paddy’s Flat, etc)
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Copper-gold ratio is bent but not broken (Reuters) Nearing a multi-decade low
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Devil’s in the Detail
Do yourself a favour and read this rant from First Majestic CEO Keith Neumeyer…
Now we love the personality and the passion in what are usually very dull earnings calls. But grilling sell-side analysts during an earnings call? Pretty boneheaded move...
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