The Pre-Start
LYL ($544m) - Lycopodium was awarded the ESLH contract for the development of KEFI Gold and Copper’s Tulu Kapi gold project in Ethiopia, worth $118m
NMR ($86m) - Native Mineral Resources hit 18m at 11.33g/t Au from 12m in Phase I drilling at Podosky, Queensland
POD ($65m) - Podium Minerals shared metallurgical study work, with concentrator recoveries of 73% of 3E metals, which it claims demonstrates the amenability to Parks Reef concentrator processing
AWJ - ($60m) - Auric produced 938oz from its 4th gold outturn, leaving the company with $41m in liquids and 4.2koz in its gold metal account
CAV ($49m) - Carnavale completed drilling for the BFS at the Kookynie gold project, assays due in ~4 weeks and the BFS on track for mid-year
HVY ($31m) - Heavy Minerals shared an exploration target for its Almandine garnet project of 30-50Mt grading 17-25%
High Grade It
China’s iron ore stockpiles have hit a record, stoking fears for Australia’s biggest export as Beijing revives its sabre-rattling approach (AFR)
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum visited Venezuela to urge investment in strategic minerals (WSJ)
Escalating hostilities in the Middle East and widening stress on oil shipping and infrastructure had global investors braced for more turbulence as Asian trading opens (Bloomberg)
War-related ructions in energy markets have spilled over into coal, with the rush for gas substitutes pushing up prices for thermal coal by 20% (FT)
G7 members Japan, France and Canada are working on alternatives to a U.S.-led trade bloc to secure critical minerals and reduce reliance on China (Reuters)
Sanjeev Gupta loses bid to appoint administrators to Tahmoor coal mine (AFR)
FIFO camp operator expects coal price recovery to spur business (AFR)
If you’re wondering why this email has landed in your inbox three hours earlier than usual, thank a 6am flight out of Perth.
For once we’ve managed to file before the market opens. A rare moment of organisation that may prove fortunate. Twitter last night was panic central and the vibe check for today’s open is not great.
There’s still an hour until the bell though, which in ASX terms is plenty of time for a few adventurous CEOs to slip out a “company making” acquisition we should apparently have already known about.
If that happens, we’ll plead ignorance. We’re about to board a 737 that, after some investigation, does not even have Wi-Fi. A rare blessing on mornings like this.
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Escalating war tensions have forced Rio Tinto to freeze the sale of its titanium business, effectively blocking the only viable buyers from the market (Australian) citing Chinese as the only likely buyers, now impossible. While borates sale attracting Apollo, Bain, Orion, Koch Industries
A1G ($537m) - African Gold lodged its scheme booklet for Montage’s scrip deal, with BDO deeming it fair and reasonable
Rattlin’ the Tin
L1 Capital is gearing up to open the cornerstone bookbuild for its new listed investment company this week, a gold fund expected to raise more than $400m (AFR)
RXL ($750m) - Rox has received commitments of $350m in debt facilities to fund Youanmi development. FID expected in March
LOT ($540m) - Lotus’ share pruchase plan saw it take a further $1.4m -Had sought $5m
NVO ($37m) - Novo completed T1 of its placement raising C$5.9m at C$0.10, and flagged impairments of C$13m on its Elementum 3D investment + C$10m on tenements
Word on the Decline
Talks of a tie-up between Toubani ($340m) and AIM-listed Cora Gold (£47m) have floated around for a while. The arithmetic is obvious. Cora’s ~1.0Moz Sanankoro deposit sits a stone’s throw away from Toubani’s ~2.2Moz Kobada
We think Toubani has previously tried to advance the idea, only to find Cora’s then 31% shareholder Brookstone Business Inc (investment vehicle of South African mining entrepreneur Mark Wellesley-Wood), blocking the path.
But the boardroom maths has changed. Eagle Eye Asset Holdings, already a 35% shareholder of Toubani, is now emerging with ~29.9% of Cora.
So the odds of a tie-up finally eventuating have risen substantially
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
War & Rare Earths (TREO) “What on earth made the US administration back the stillborn USA Rare Earths with its worthless Round Top deposit in Texas”. A must-read for a dose of reality in rare earth land
The return of American Exceptionalism (Le Shrub)
Paragon L/S Fund (Feb Newsletter) Outlines why Kingsgate is a key holding
The cat bird seat (Alyosha) Gold-to-oil is at 60. It averages 25. Relative values always revert to their long-term mean
Fifty/Fifty: Chopping and changing some energy exposure (Trader Ferg) why thermal coal has his attention
Rio Tinto Asset Sales: RTIT & Boron (Part 3): Total potential proceeds of $2.9-$3.5B (Mining Valuation Substack)
Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson (ITCOW) Great listen. Long PGMs, oil
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Today’s Top Tweet
Ownership & Oversight
ALK ($2.3B) - CE Mining sold $45.2m of Alkane shares on-market, cutting its stake to 7.4%
DYL ($2.1B) - Deep Yellow announced Jennifer Mintz as chief legal officer
SNM ($68m) - Perennial bought $1.8m of Sentinel Metals on-market, taking its stake to 5.8%
HVY ($34m) - S3 Consortium sold $91k of Heavy Minerals shares, cutting its stake to 5.5%
Devil’s in the Detail
Forget the gold-to-oil ratio. Found this beauty in Ferg’s latest article.
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