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- MP Materials Surges 50% on U.S. Govt Deal
MP Materials Surges 50% on U.S. Govt Deal
Iluka & Lynas' shares see best days in years, Ora Banda down 14% on FY26 outlook
The Pre-Start
The U.S. gov’t will become MP Materials’ largest shareholder (up a 15% owner), with numerous further agreements announced, including:
A guaranteed floor price of US$110/kg NdPr
Plans to build a new magnet manufacturing facility (“10X”) by 2028
An agreement to purchase 100% of the magnets produced
MP has secured an additional US$1B in funding commitments, while receiving a US$150m loan from the DoD on top of the US$400m of stock issued (MP.NY) Wow… This is truly a new paradigm. ILU up 26%, LYC up 17%
Barrick shared an update on its US$2B expansion at Lumwana, which it reported as well underway and on track to deliver 240kt of copper a year (B.NY)
Ora Banda produced 22koz in Q4, impacted by the slower-than-expected ramp-up of the mill + mining delays at Riverina. Cash increased $3.5m to close at $84m. FY26 guidance set at 140-155koz with an AISC of A$2,800-2,900/oz (OBM)
Robex shared grade control drilling from its Kiniero gold project in Guinea, which is on track to deliver first gold in Q4 CY25 (RXR)
Almonty shared an update JORC report for the Sangdong mine in South Korea, with reserves totalling 8.5Mt @ 0.42% WO3 (AII) If you wanna to an outrageous chart for a company that’s flown under the radar, look here…
Ero Copper shared drilling from the Furnas Copper-Gold project in Brazil, where it intercepted 105m @ 1.54% CuEq from 332m (ERO.TO)
St Barbara published FY25 resource definition and exploration work from Simberi, with the latest hits of 17m @ 5.2g/t from 53m the stand out hit (SBM)
Golden Horse shared further drilling from Hopes Hill, intercepting 15m at 3.4g/t from 165m (GHM)
Image Resources shipped ~35kt of heavy mineral con over the quarter, booking ~$22m in revenue. CY25 guidance has been maintained (IMA)
Australian Pacific Coal was served a Statutory Demand for $1m in debts from M Resources. AQC is considering its validity as well as its options (AQC)
High Grade It
MP Materials unveiled a multibillion-dollar deal with the U.S. gov’t to boost the output of rare earth magnets (Reuters)
Robert Friedland welcomed Trump’s vow to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, arguing that domestic production of the metal was “fundamental to America’s national security” (FT)
Trump confirmed a new 50% tariff on copper to start on August 1 in a bid to promote domestic development of the industry (Reuters)
Liontown said “mine killer” pricing poses a threat to the entire Australian lithium industry, not just Kathleen Valley (Australian)
Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, has its own Swiss vault, holding ~US$8B of gold, with an eye to growing these stores (Bloomberg)
Primero is chasing Tianqi for payments for work done in relation to works at its $1.2B lithium hydroxide refinery (BN)
CATL’s stock is trading at a record premium in Hong Kong over its mainland China-listed stock, an indication of global investors’ interest in the battery giant, marking a 46% surge since its IPO in May (Bloomberg)
EGA is set to defend its rights against Guinea, after it confirmed what it deemed the wrongful termination of its basic agreement with its subsidiary GAC (GAC)
A Malian military helicopter airlifted US$117m of gold from Barrick’s Loulo mine, seizing over a tonne of gold (Reuters)
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Wheelin’ n Dealin’
A chorus of investors & analysts agree MAC, owner of the CSA mine, is being taken over on the cheap, despite copper soaring (AFR)
Antilles Gold signed Letters of Intent with Shandong and MLV for a US$26m EPC contract and US$16m of project financing, respectively (AAU)
IGO has withdrawn from its Fraser Range JV with Carawine, further reducing its exploration footprint (IGO)
Kingston received the initial $50m for its sale of Misima (KSN)
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
Sandfire has been questioned on and off for years about what it might do with Black Butte, listed as Sandfire Resources America (of which the Aussie Sandfire owns ~87%)
Given the intense interest in U.S.-based copper assets of late, and the added benefit of Trump’s import tariffs, it feels like prime time to offload this asset
Anyone know a PE group keen on U.S. copper?
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In the Weeds
Today’s Top Tweet
Which commodity could be hit next in a trade war world?
In a de-globalized / regionalizing world with less trust and reliability this makes any non-Russia/South African PGM production (co/by product or primary) that is economic at all points of the metals cycle a strategic asset especially in an allied / Five Eyes nation
And it’s not
— Yellow Lab Life Capital (@YellowLabLife)
2:03 PM • Jul 9, 2025
Devil’s in the Detail
It’s not the worst day to be in the rare earths business, with the equities seeing a sea of green.
While we absolutely could be on track for further government handouts, what we’ve just seen is the West’s second most prominent company get the U.S. check of approval.
How much room does that leave for the rest of these players?
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