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- MP Soars 20% on Apple Deal, Rio Names New CEO
MP Soars 20% on Apple Deal, Rio Names New CEO
Newmont nets US$470m from GGP & DSV sales, Chinese lithium stocks feel the pinch
The Pre-Start
Rio Tinto shared Q2 production results, with guidance unchanged across the board. Iron ore saw its highest Q2 shipment level in 7 years, while copper equivalent production rose 13% (RIO) Additionally, Simon Trott was appointed CEO, replacing Jakob Stausholm as of August 25 (RIO)
Newmont reported share sales in Greatland and Discovery Silver will net US$470m, while it remains on track to deliver 2025 guidance (NEM)
Evolution reported record cash flow, delivering $308m over the quarter. It met guidance with 751koz of gold & 76kt of copper produced (EVN)
Tianqi Lithium warned of an estimated first-half loss of up to 155m yuan (~$33m) (9696.HK) Down 3%
Ganfeng forecasted a 300-550m yuan ($64-117m) loss for 1H 2025 (1772.SZ) Down 7%
Chengxin Lithium anticipates a loss of up to 850m yuan (2240.HK) Down 5%
MMG reported a 1H 2025 preliminary result with net profit of US$340m, reflecting lower unit costs at Las Bambas & higher commodity prices (1208.HK)
Wia released a new Kokoseb resource, providing an uplift of 38% to 2.93Moz, with 62% sitting in the indicated category (WIA)
G2 shared assays from Oko drilling, intercepting 5.9g/t over 60m from 90m (GTWO.TO) Stock up 9%
Namib Minerals plans to invest as much as US$400m in reviving 2 gold mines in Zimbabwe, Redwing & Mazowe, over the next 5 years (Bloomberg)
MC Mining issued a new strategy for the Uitkomst Colliery, aimed at lowering operating costs, reduce labour requirements & add long-term offtakes (MCM)
Wildcat ended Q4 with $55m of cash while its PFS nears completion (WC8)
Burgundy is in a trading halt pending an operational update (BDM) who would want to be in the diamond business right now?
High Grade It
Taxpayer-assisted rescue plans are being finalised for 3 troubled smelters across two states, with $135m to save two Nyrstar plants and a lifeline for Australia’s only manganese smelter (Australian)
Rio Tinto has appointed Simon Trott as its next CEO, with the Australian-born businessman vowing to focus on cost and financial discipline (AFR), with Gina Rinehart pressing for the miner to move its HQ to Perth (AFR)
Iron ore prices have climbed toward US$100/t on speculation of fresh Chinese stimulus, but analysts say the rally is unlikely to last (Australian)
Fortescue has lashed the ATO, accusing it of being aggressive, unreasonable in its tax guidance, not legally robust in administering the law and risking Australia being put in the “too hard” basket by foreign investors (AFR)
Bowen Coking said its Indonesian contractor, BUMA, is demanding the payment of more than $15m, putting the company’s future in doubt (AFR)
Australia’s transport safety authority has launched a belated investigation into an emergency triggered by an incident involving FMG’s ship Nicola (Australian)
India said it had reached its Paris Agreement target of 50% of non-fossil fuel power capacity 5 years ahead of its 2030 pledge, despite its coal reliance (FT)
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Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Apple has struck a US$500m, 4-year deal to buy rare-earth minerals from MP Materials, following its backing from the Pentagon (Bloomberg, MP.NY) MP stock surged another 20%
Newmont launched a $100m block trade to divest its stake in Discovery Silver a day after the resignation of CFO Karyn Ovelmen
Mt Gibson Iron has agreed to acquire 50% of the Central Tanami gold project from Northern Star for $50m in cash, with MGX & JV partner Tanami Gold having a common major shareholder (MGX, Presentation)
Dataroom reported that Japanese steelmakers Nippon & Mitsui are expected to step in to assist Peabody in completing a deal to buy Anglo American’s QLD coal mines for $5.8B (Australian)
Indian multinational steel manufacturer JSW Steel is believed to be close to buying a stake in Coronado’s Curragh (Australian)
BlueScope secures right-of-last refusal for Whyalla Steelworks (AFR)
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
We have talked about Predictive Discovery and their Bankan gold project in Guinea plenty of times in the past. And featuring Perseus, Zijin and Lundin Family all on the register, the stock is pricing in a corporate outcome already
But let’s entertain a different eventual playbook for the moment…
Predictive’s Bankan (5.4Moz @ 1.7g/t Au) is adjacent to Robex’s Kiniero where construction remains on track for first gold in 4Q25 from its 5Mtpa new plant
Robex’s management is filled with plant-building expertise led by Matt Wilcox which has many in the market expecting Robex to become a future mid-tier gold producer
So imagine if in 12 months time, Robex re-rates as a cash-printing producer (early years ~1.0g/t, mostly oxides at ~1.5:1 strip) and is looking at the relative merit of consolidating with Predictive…
What would be more attractive to Predictive’s Board, shareholders and management - a cash premium from Perseus / Zijin etc? Or a hefty scrip stake in the pro-forma of Robex which could be marching full-throttle towards mid-tier status?
Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Rare Earths – Scarcity vs Scare Tactics (Terra Capital) A free 24-page guide to rare earths by previous pod guest Dylan Kelly (DK)
We’re letting Xi Jinping weaponise our economy all over again (AFR op-ed) A super thought-provoking read… How much China reliance is too much?
Rio’s new CEO is about to put the miner on a diet (AFR Chanticleer)
Today’s Top Tweet
2025 was to copper traders what LNG was to natgas traders in 2022: a windfall profit.
Why: because of Trump’s tariffs on copper imports, basically putting a hugh premium on U.S. copper price’s versus the rest of the world. Traders thus can make a huge arbitrage (a riskless
— Alexander Stahel 🌻 (@BurggrabenH)
2:04 PM • Jul 13, 2025
Devil’s in the Detail
We came across a quote from “Never Rest on Your Ores”, the autobiography of Teck’s chairman emeritus Norman Keevil, that was too good not to share.
One important thing we have learned about good, long-life mineral properties is that it’s not so much what you pay for them, within reasonable limits; it’s how you pay for them.
The trick is always to avoid excessive financial leverage, so that the debt devil can’t destroy you before it’s possible to pay it off. If you can avoid going under in the early days, then the eventual value of a long-life mine will generally prove to be worth much more than the acquisition cost.
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