The Pre-Start
NST ($38.3B) - Northern Star warned the lower end of guidance is at risk, now expecting >1.5Moz after weaker KCGM milling and reduced Jundee productivity; Jan–Feb gold sales 220koz, with the KCGM mill expansion targeting early FY27 commissioning - Down 16%
SYR ($328m) - Syrah said the US ITC delivered a final negative determination on AD/CVD for Chinese graphite AAM, so the DOC’s 160–170% duties won’t apply, and warned this may delay Vidalia AAM sales and constrain near-term demand for Balama feedstock
HRZ ($278m) - Horizon Minerals has mutually terminated its Paddington ore purchase agreement and will use 460kt of stockpiles at Boorara to commission Black Swan in mid-2027
NVX ($263m) - NOVONIX said the US ITC determined Chinese AAM imports do not materially impede the US industry; Section 301's 25% tariff remains, plus a temporary 10% global duty to 35%
FXG ($153m) - Felix Gold reported 8.7m at 12.5% Sb from 17m at NW Array, extending veining west and south at Treasure Creek
EMC ($32m) - Everest reported infill RC results at Mt Dimer Taipan, including 8m at 10.1 g/t gold, with mining ongoing, ~45kt on the ROM and toll-treatment due in April under a 200ktpa agreement
HTM ($29m) - High-Tech Metals returned 12m at 8.8 g/t gold from 43m (incl. 1m at 84.1 g/t from 50m) at Wagtail within the Mt Fisher–Mt Eureka gold project
High Grade It
Gold giant Northern Star crashed to earth after another guidance cut (AFR)
Brent crude settled above $100 for the first time since August 2022 as millions of barrels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf (Bloomberg)
Labor has declared a “national crisis”, increased petrol supply by allowing dirtier fuels and released reserves (Australian)
Liontown said Chinese customers are showing extra interest in buying Aussie lithium after disruption to African shipments (AFR)
One of the unions bombarding BHP with right of entry requests is on the brink of taking strike action against the mining giant (Australian)
Rio Tinto's Kennecott copper mine suspends operations as contract worker dies (Reuters)
Drinks are on Intralinks on Thursday for Perth’s dealmaking community. Bankers, lawyers, corporate development teams, advisers - RSVP now.
We’ll be there 🍻
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
FM.TO (C$28.2B) - First Quantum will sell the Çayeli underground copper-zinc mine in Türkiye to Cengiz Insaat for US$340m cash, including a US$50m upfront payment (produces ~25–30kt of Cu and ~50–60kt of Zn pa)
WGX ($6B) - Westgold completed the demerger of the Reedy and Comet projects into Valiant Gold, which has accepted $75m in IPO applications and is targeting ASX listing this month
PLA ($226m) - Pacific Lime & Cement executed a PNG Project Development Agreement setting the sovereign framework, with State options to acquire up to 18% of Stage 1 for US$23m and up to 30% of Stage 2 at an NPV-linked price
QGL ($161m) - Quantum Graphite said partner Sunlands Pure signed an MOU with the Governorate of Al Buraimi, Oman, to develop a large-scale graphite refinery, with Quantum recognised as SPG’s exclusive flake supplier from Uley 2
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
With the entire world fixated on the Strait of Hormuz, we think a really significant policy change was introduced for certain gold miners. No one seems to be talking about it, and the market has largely shrugged it off.
On Monday evening, Reuters revealed that Ghana will scrap its long-standing flat 5% gold royalty and replace it with a sliding scale that climbs to 12% when gold hits $4,500/oz.
Bullion is north of $5,000/oz. So that’s a 7% higher royalty overnight for the gold miners. Apart from Asante, it’s hard to argue that the market has reacted.
Company | % Ghana | Mines | Production p.a. | Impact p.a. ($5,000/oz) | Share price % since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Galiano | 100% | Asanko | ~150koz | ~$53m | -7.3% |
Asante | 100% | Bibiani + Chirano | ~250koz | ~$88m | -16.0% |
.Chifeng | ~43% | Wassa | ~200koz | ~$170m | +9.4% |
Perseus | ~35% | Edikan | ~170koz | ~$60m | +0.0% |
Gold Fields | ~23% | Tarkwa | ~530koz | ~$186m | -2.3% |
AngloGold | ~20% | Obuasi + Iduapriem | ~465koz | ~$163m | -3.9% |
Newmont | ~11% | Ahafo | ~650koz | ~$228m | -2.1% |
Zijin | ~5% | Akyem | ~375koz | ~$131m | +1.9% |
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In the Weeds
The Maloney family’s share trade timing is golden (AFR Rear Window) Pantoro selldown in the spotlight following guidance downgrade
80/20 (Trader Ferg) The probabilty of a dodgy taco
how to open the strait of hormuz (Alyosha)
The Most Important Event None Talks About (Le Shrub) …we might as well bet on a market that has proper upside!
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Today’s Top Tweet
We couldn’t agree more. Several excellent threads from Arrakis Global in the last week. See here and here.
Devil’s in the Detail
The company of interest has a mere $30m market cap. But $3.5m for a 2.5% NSR… Time could make that deal look pretty remarkable for Jetosea.
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