Northern Star Woes Lead to Guidance Downgrade

Fortescue hits best 9-month numbers, Boss bounces on quarterly result

April 29, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • MinRes ended the quarter with $5.4B net debt as Onslow shipped 2.2Mt iron ore in the March quarter (MIN) A surprising amount of detail on the current state of road and haulage

  • Northern Star produced 385koz at an AISC of $2,246/oz for underlying free cash flow of $201m. Guidance has been revised down by 80koz (midpoint) while AISC moved up $175/koz as a result of delayed access to Golden Pike North, higher maintenance costs across Yandal & higher royalties (NST)

  • Fortescue shipped 46.1Mt for a 9-month record of 143.2Mt, as it ended the period with net debt of US$2.1B. Iron Bridge remains under review (FMG)

  • Q3 saw both Sandfire’s operations hit with heavy rainfall, leaving it needing a strong final quarter to meet guidance. YTD production is 111kt CuEq (guidance 154kt), while cash flows saw it reduce net debt a further $45m to $243m (SFR)

  • Vault produced 87koz at an AISC of $2,553/oz, leading to an increase in cash of $49m, to a total of $624m. Guidance for the full year has been maintained (VAU)

  • Ramelius refined its guidance, indicating it’ll hit the upper end of output & low end of costs. Q3 saw it deliver 80koz at $1,492/oz (RMS)

  • Boss Energy saw 296klb of U3O8 drummed and 247klb of IX production over the quarter, leaving it on track for guidance, while it closed with $229m cash, assets & investments (BOE)

  • Whitehaven sold 7Mt coal in the quarter and closed the period with net cash of $0.3B following the receipt of proceeds from the Blackwater selldown (WHC)

  • Macmahon secured $172m in underground contracts. It’ll continue at Deflector while signing a new Gwalia + Ulysses contract with Genesis (MAH)

  • Bellevue’s quarterly showed negative free cash flow of $30m for the quarter, with most detail previously reported (BGL)

  • Stanmore delivered saleable production of 3.3Mt while it restated FOB cast cost guidance, reflecting improvement initiatives & lower capex. Net debt closed at US$146m (SMR)

  • Catalyst produced 24koz at an AISC of $2,765/oz, leaving it needing a marginally better quarter to meet the low end of guidance. It closed with $98m in cash & bullion (CYL)

  • Emerald produced 19.1koz gold (down from 31.9koz in Dec q) seeing cash fall by ~$34m to $209m after paying Cambodian corporate tax (EMR)

  • Alkane produced 18koz at $2,770/oz, leaving guidance unchanged. Cash and bullion increased $11m (ALK)

  • 29Metals produced 4.1kt & 17kt of copper & zinc from Golden Grove, while it forked out $14m in stamp duty. Guidance remains unchanged (29M)

  • Syrah continued its record of zero quarters of positive operating cash flow (negative US$15m in the quarter), ending the period with US$66m cash (SYR) no output as Balama remains shut due to protests

  • AIC Mines produced 3kt of Cu at an AIC of A$5.87/lb, with sales hit by road closures due to rain (A1M)

  • Gorilla Gold will increase its interest in the Comet Vale project to 100%, exercising an option for a $3m cash payment (GG8)

  • Great Boulder shared drilling from Eaglehawk, with hits including 12m @ 2.47g/t from 70m (GBR)

  • Odyssey has commenced a technical study on its Tuckanarra gold project in the Murchison which hosts 311koz resource on granted MLs (ODY)

High Grade It

  • The race for control of critical minerals has opened a new battlefront on Australia’s doorstep, with the US’s signing an executive order to supercharge its deep-sea mining ambitions (AFR)

  • Lynas is in talks with the Trump administration to counter rising costs for the refinery it’s building in Texas (Bloomberg) While it cut its output to take advantage of the global trade war, as it seeks out new buyers (AFR)

  • Lynas’ boss, Amanda Lacaze has called Labors critical minerals policy ‘flawed’ (Australian)

  • China and South Korea have extended their battery battle from EVs to grid storage, with recent tariffs offering the possibility of a Korean comeback (FT)

  • The Greens will demand Labor block any new coal or gas projects if they hold the balance of power in the event of a hung parliament, the party stated (West)

  • Gold rebounds as easing U.S.-China trade tensions took place while investors went bargain hunting (Reuters)

  • MinRes revealed 1740 jobs were cut in nine months while it seeks to recover from board departures (West)

  • The US Government has indicated support for an independently operated multi-user rail in Liberia (Ivanhoe Atlantic)

Got headaches on planning your pits? Whether you're doing a study or looking to optimise your mine, get in touch with the team at Resolve Mining Solutions 

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Slumping coal prices have caught out Japanese utility Chugoku, which is set to sell a stake in NSW’s Boggabri for barely half the price it anticipated a year ago (AFR)

  • Mondaelphous has entered an agreement to acquire High Energy Service for $21.5m (MND)

Word on the Decline

  • There’s too many quarterlies today thanks to the public holiday heavy end-of-April. We’ll be back with more rumours once we take them all in…

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • Dyspro-what? Why an Obscure Element Has the EV Industry in a Panic (WSJ)

  • How Australia’s Luck Ran Out (Bloomberg YouTube)

  • Sign here! MinRes succession goes to petition (AFR’s Rear Window)

  • After 15 Years, John Paulson Is Finally Winning Big on Gold (WSJ)

  • Canadian election may herald more mining activity (NM)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

Does anyone else get a prickly feeling on the back of their neck when they see cash flows / physicals in a financial model flatline in a ‘steady state’?

If anyone has found this ‘steady state’ nirvana in the resource extraction game, I’ll be damned…

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