Ora Banda Cops Hit After Guidance Miss

Rio Boosts Pay to Battle Unions as Rare Earth Magnet Shortage Hits Carmakers

June 06, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Ora Banda downgraded FY25 guidance, with production expected to be ~95koz (5% miss on lower bound). The reduction has been primarily caused by extended plant downtime due to the installation of lifter & lining upgrades (OBM)

  • Evolution shared its annual R&R statement, with reserves estimated to contain 11Moz of gold and 1.4Mt of copper, representing 15 years of life (EVN)

  • Develop shared a new presentation, announcing the start of concentrate production & first payment received, with plant commissioning advanced (DVP)

  • K92 Mining shared its latest hits, with widths broadening at Kora’s K2 Vein, with a headline result of 12.8m at 31.9g/t (KNT.TO)

  • Gorilla shared further hits from Lakeview, extending mineralisation by 100m, with a hit of 16m @ 3.8g/t from 216m, 100m down dip of previous hits (GG8)

  • Astral shared in-fill drilling results from Kamperman, confirming previous estimates (AAR)

  • Koonenberry shared its 5th hit from Enmore, hitting 150m @ 0.71g/t from 230m (KNB)

High Grade It

  • Suzuki’s suspension of production of its flagship Swift model is reportedly due to China's rare earth restrictions (Reuters) Lynas up 12% yesterday

  • Rio staved off a Pilbara union agreement by handing out $25k pay rises while BHP launched legal action to curtail allegedly misleading union social posts (AFR)

  • Julio Ponce, former son-in-law of Chile's late dictator, announced his departure from the holding companies that own a major stake in SQM (Bloomberg)

  • Rio Tinto’s $20B Pilbara investment wave is just getting started, with the official opening of the $2.4B Western Range mine marking a turning point (AFR)

  • Indonesia will suspend nickel production near a diving hotspot in the country’s east over concerns it could impact tourism (Bloomberg)

  • Nickel oversupply is expected to persist over the next few year’s given production capacity expansion & slower demand growth, industry leaders said (Reuters), meanwhile BHP is considering re-entering nickel with the $1.5B Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania (AFR)

  • The gold price could crack US$4k/oz this year, gifting miners the highest margins since the 1980s if the US dollar continues its slide, according to State Street (AFR)

  • Laopu Gold’s 2,300% rally faces test after its stock hit HK$1,000. The jewellery maker has soared since its June 2024 listing, emerging as the new face of Chinese luxury (Bloomberg)

  • Mali hearing on Barrick's suspended Loulo-Gounkoto complex has been adjourned to June 12 (Reuters)

  • A Northern Star subsidiary has sued Grange Resources & Vox Royalty over a dispute relating to the Red Hill deposit at Kanowna Belle (BN)

  • A crash in Chinese coal prices and a flood of clean energy are cutting power rates in major Chinese industrial hubs, easing tariff pressures (Bloomberg)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Former De Beers CEOs Gareth Penny and Bruce Cleaver, as well as Australian mining veteran Michael O’Keeffe, are leading groups that are reported to be potential buyers of Anglo American’s diamond business (Mining.com)

  • Vizsla Royalties is acquiring an additional 3.0% NSR on Panuco project, operated by Vizsla Silver, funded via a US$40m financing (VROY.TO)

  • St Barbara confirmed it has reached an agreement with Patronus for PTR to buy back its shares, with consideration in the form of Geopacific stock (SBM, PTR) St Barbara will emerge with a stake in Geopacific, adding to their existing PNG exposure via Simberi

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Robex raised $120m as part of its Australian IPO, commencing trading yesterday (RXR)

Word on the Decline

  • Our view is firming that Regis is going hard at the footy for Bellevue…

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In the Weeds

  • When gold takes the backseat, silver grabs the wheel (Livewire) Silver has just hit a 13-year high

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

If you peel into the Information Circular of the acquisition of Orogen Royalties, you’ll see that there were four bidders in a bidding war from December 2024 to April 2025. The eventual “winner”, Triple Flag, increased their bid five times!!

We assume the whole royalty industry thinks Oregon’s flagship Silicon 1,0% NSR is worth a fair bit. Let’s not forget that Altius has a larger 1.5% NSR on Silicon itself!

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