The Pre-Start
Lynas reported half-year revenue of $413m, EBITDA of $152m and profit of $80m, marking a 3-year high. It closed with $1B in cash (LYC) Below expectatinos but stock is +4%. Dec Q Chinese NdPr average jumped $18 to $74/kg
Sandfire confirmed the death of a contractor employee at MATSA; site activities are temporarily suspended while SFR and Spanish authorities investigate (SFR)
Yancoal reported 2025 attributable saleable production of 38.6Mt, operating EBITDA $1.4B, cash $2.1B and a fully-franked $161m final dividend of $0.122 (YAL) Down 10%
Capricorn reported H1 underlying EBITDA of $215 on revenue of $350m. Net cash was $441m as it declared a maiden 5cps interim dividend (CMM)
Vault reported H1 EBITDA of $385m, underlying pre-tax profit of $212m, and a $35m loss after settling hedges. Cash & bullion of $537m, declared a maiden 7cps unfranked dividend (VAU)
Westgold reported first half revenue of $1.2B, underlying EBITDA of $612m and underlying NPAT $314m, on gold production of 195koz, & closing treasury balance of $654m (WGX)
Soul Patts ceased to be a substantial holder in Deep Yellow after the termination of the cooperation deed with Paradice (DYL) and recent selling
Osisko Metals intersected 694m at 0.31% Cu (0.38% CuEq) in drilling at the Gaspé copper project in Eastern Québec (OM.TO) +9% to C$1B Mcap
Kingsgate reported half-year production of 44.9 koz gold and 363 koz silver, statutory NPAT of $88.1m, cash of $104.8m and declared a 10c dividend (KCN)
Boss Energy reported a first-half net loss of $8m, operating cash inflow of $36m, $208m cash and liquid assets, on production of 842k lbs (BOE)
Black Cat processed first Fingals & Majestic ore through Lakewood. BC8 will expand Lakewood to 1.5Mtpa for $20m from operating cashflow. It reported a $35m half year profit and closed with $54m in cash (BC8)
Core Lithium agreed to sell Glencore its ~5.1kdmt spod concentrate stockpile at a fixed SC6 equivalent price of US$2,023/dmt (CXO)
Aurelia reported H1 underlying EBITDA up 41% to $70m and underlying NPAT up 60% to $25m, with $86m in cash, Federation now commercial & guidance unchanged (AMI)
29Metals reported 2025 revenue of $567m, EBITDA of $176m and NPAT of $24m (inclusive of $54m insurance proceeds), with drawn debt at $188m (29M)
Ballard’s Baldock resource at Mt Ida increased to 9Mt at 3.5 g/t for 1Moz, with indicated resources of 669koz at 3.7 g/t (BM1) How lucky it came in right at 1Moz on the dot
EcoGraf completed an updated BFS for the Epanko graphite project, showing 73ktpa production, a 16.7 Mt reserve at 8.2% TGC, pre-tax NPV10 US$516M (EGR)
Caravel says its DFS for the Caravel copper project remains on track for H1 2026, Adani has provided a draft offtake and approvals are targeted for end 2027 (CVV)
Tungsten Mining will pursue a Nasdaq or NYSE listing, targeting Q3 2026 (TGN)
Macmahon appointed Tom Quinn as an independent non-exec director (MAH)
High Grade It
Zimbabwe has suspended exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates with immediate effect, its mines ministry said (Reuters) PLS +7%, MIN +5%
The ASX hit a record with BHP reaching a new all-time high, while expectations of a May interest rate rise firm up (AFR)
WA’s Mines Minister will make for North America with a host of critical minerals companies in tow in the hopes of drumming up new business (West)
Valterra Platinum declared a dividend that smashed analyst expectations as earnings more than doubled (Bloomberg)
Singapore's OCBC is exploring setting up a custody business for physical gold, targeting institutions and HNW’s (Reuters)
When the clouds are on the horizon, the time for building Arks has passed. What might you do? What do you need to do? What can you do? When might you do it? What products might you use?
These are all questions that are dealt with as part of our Risk Review process. Even if the review determines that nothing needs doing now, but identifies the future catalysts for action, you’ll be well ahead of the pack. One of our clients called it “Preparation in Peacetime”.
We don’t have all the answers, the future is uncertain, but we do have the tools and the experience to help you ask the right questions. Get in touch with Noah's Rule about a Risk Review.
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
As Ballard reveals a 1Moz resource at Baldock this morning, it puts the spotlight back on the logical combination between them and Aurenne Group.
In 2020 the mysterious Aurenne paid ~$32m to acquire Alt Resources, which only had a 571koz gold resource when the bid landed. A modest 272koz reserve emerged later, but that did not deter Aurenne. The private group linked to hedge fund figure John Brice backed a new 2Mtpa mill almost immediately.
We still do not know how many ounces Aurenne has added to that small starting base. What is clear is that Ballard’s inventory looks increasingly attractive beside it.
We remember when Delta ran a process on the Mt Ida gold. Aurenne should have moved then. Brokers even tried to stitch together an IPO of Ballard and Aurenne, but Aurenne seemingly wouldn't budge.
Delta eventually spun Ballard out on its own, and it now carries a market cap near $370m. We used to think Ballard would still get acquired by Aurenne. Now an RTO the other way around feels just as plausible to us.
Another interesting angle worth watching: Delta’s 34% stake in Ballard is worth about $120m. And once you net off their A$54m cash balance, Delta’s lithium carries no implied value at all.
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Simon Trott spins Rio Tinto’s gooey growth (AFR Rear Window)
Copper, chaos and contrarian thinking with David Lilley (Fast Forward podcast)
Were you forwarded this email from someone else?
Today’s Top Tweet
Devil’s in the Detail
As you reflect on the above tweet, chew on the Zimbabwe export ban on lithium minerals & concentrates…
Dwayne Sparkes puts it well, excerpt from his fresh tweet:
In 2022 during the boom, 784kt of LCE hit the market and the demand was 854kt of LCE, an 8% deficit. An 8% deficit is what caused the massive spike in lithium price. It was then a 1-3% surplus that caused the massive downturn in prices. Its a very fine balance in this lithium market and small factors could throw it into a deficit/surplus. From what we've seen, small surpluses/deficits cause massive price swings. 140kt of LCE has just come out of the market. Food for thought.
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