The Pre-Start
Vale posted profits above analyst expectations, totalling US$2.7B, with EBITDA of US$4.4B. Free cash flow came in at US$1.6B (VALE.NY)
Ivanhoe reported profit of US$31m on adjusted EBITDA of US$87m (US$76m attributable to KK). Stage 2 dewatering of Kakula to complete in Dec. First Platreef concentrate is expected within weeks (IVN.TO)
Capstone produced 55kt of copper at a C1 cost of US$2.42/lb. Financially, it posted a recorded adjusted EBITDA figure of US$249m (CSC) Strong performance on unit costs
Coeur reported operating cash flow of US$267m from production of 4.8Moz of silver & 111koz of gold. Closing cash more than doubled to US$266m (CDE.NY)
Aris Mining produced 73koz of gold at an AISC of US$1,452/oz, for adjusted EBITDA of US$131m. Net debt reduced to US$64m (ARIS.TO)
Deterra reported revenue of $58m, up 10% on one yeay ago. Gold contributed $4m (DRR)
Robex’s Kiniero remains on track for first gold this quarter, with mining underway. Nampala produced ~10koz of gold, processing a head grade of 0.69g/t, with recoveries improving to 88%+ (RXR)
Hastings announced a partnership with North American rare earth processing company, Ucore Rare Metals, providing a framework to negotiate off-take and other opportunities (HAS)
Brightstar produced 7koz and closed the quarter with cash and working capital of $42m, slightly lower than expected (BTR)
Polymetals shared an announcement regarding the two lives that were lost at Endeavor this week (POL)
High Grade It
Lynas MD Amanda Lacaze said the wave of new, government-backed rare earths projects will face higher construction costs because Chinese manufacturers will deliberately starve Western projects (AFR), while she blasted customers who are ‘in denial’ about paying more for rare earths (Australian)
Lithium stocks rocketed after JPMorgan published a bullish note, raising its forecast for spodumene prices over the next 2 years by as much as 50% (AFR)
China should consider imposing a ceiling on domestic copper, zinc, lead capacity to tackle cutthroat domestic competition, said the country’s main metals association (Bloomberg)
Mercuria will provide up to US$100m in prepayments to Eurasian Resources as part of a 3-year supply agreement for copper from DRC (Bloomberg) Energy traders continue to push into metals
Gold prices rose 2% to over $4,000/oz, buoyed by a Fed interest rate cut (Reuters)
Industry Minister Tim Ayres said he’s open to every option, including new ownership of the Rio-controlled Tomago, to keep the smelter open (AFR)
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
MinRes downplayed a lithium firesale talk after notching an iron ore record (AFR, Australian)
Titan Minerals alludes to a potential project-level transaction with recent strategic shareholder Lingbao in their quarterly (TTM)
Wiluna Mining confirms it has fielded interest from a number of parties, and that Creasy Group has acquired shares from Milan Jerkovic at 50c each which implies $250m for Wiluna equity (WMC) “and if any such transaction were to eventuate, it may be at a value that is higher than that at which Mr Jerkovic sold his shares.”
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
There’s actually a lot of interesting slides from Alcoa’s investor day deck, have a flick through if you get the chance
The one thing we’d love some help understanding if anyone can assist us…
Alcoa owns ~2% of Ma’aden when it divested its 25.1 % interest in a JV they had together. And they are pretty transparent with investors that they intend to “monetise” that stake when they are allowed to
But even if they stage that $1.5B “monetisation” over 3 yrs like they say they will, how on earth do they find a buyer for $1.5B of stock in a mining company that trades at ~50× earnings? 🤔
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Gina Rinehart’s Hancock came out swinging after its worst result in 5 years (Australian, AFR) $3B profit for the year
China’s ‘Scrapitalism’ Pushes Back on Mining Giants (Bloomberg) Explores China’s continued strength across commodity supply
Why the boss of this $21b company has a two-part career rule (AFR) The boss being Evo’s Lawrie Conway
China Rare Earth Restrictions of October 9 Implementation Suspended for One Year (TREO)
The 42% gain that shows why Sohn is a stock picker’s delight (AFR) Highlights Terra Capital’s Coeur pick
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Today’s Top Tweet
This is awesome. 1.8 billion years in 1 min 12 secs. Geology wins @EarthByteGroup
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— #Tom Woolrych (#@tom_woolrych)
9:42 AM • Oct 30, 2025
Devil’s in the Detail
Nobody can say they had to guess the distance between the prospects 😂
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