The Pre-Start

  • Fortescue reported record H1 shipments of 100.2Mt (50.5Mt in Q2), cash US$4.7B, net debt US$1.0B (FMG)

  • Northern Star sold 348koz in the December quarter at an AISC of $2,937/oz, underlying free cash flow of $(328)m and net cash of $293m, and revised FY26 guidance to 1,600-1,700koz and AISC $2,600-2,800/oz (NST)

  • Teck reported 4Q25 production towards the top end of guidance for copper & zinc. QB2 performed well, while 2026-28 guidance was unchanged (TECK.T)

  • S32’s guidance remains unchanged for all operated assets, though Brazil Aluminium is under review. US$338m was invested in Hermosa, while US$152m was returned to shareholders over the half (S32)

  • Regis produced 96.6koz gold at an AISC of $2,839/oz in the December Q, paid $38m in fully franked dividends and held $930m in cash and bullion (RRL)

  • Sandfire reported H1 FY26 Group CuEq production of 72.1kt, retained FY26 guidance, generated $344m and had $13m net cash (SFR)

  • Pantoro produced 22.1koz in the quarter, cash and gold increased by $35m to $216.5m (PNR)

  • Resolute produced 65.9koz gold in Q4 at an AISC of $1,877/oz, had net cash of $209.1m (RSG)

  • Hillgrove produced 11.3kt Cu in 2025, ended the quarter with $20.6m cash and guided 2026 Cu production of 12.75-14kt at $5.75–6.25/lb AISC (HGO)

  • Kingston reported quarterly net revenue up 14% to $18.1m, closing cash $24.9m, while a Pearse South geotechnical hazard delayed high-grade ore access (KSN)

  • Fenix shipped 1,241k wmt iron ore, closed with $78.9m cash, updated FY26 guidance to 4.2-4.8Mt (FEX)

  • Peninsula Energy shared that ramp-up continues in Mine Unit 4, with the commencement of acidification (PEN)

  • St Barbara completed a PFS for the 15-Mile processing hub with post-tax NPV5 of $1,402m and IRR 80.2% at US$3,000/oz, $308m initial capital and ~103 koz pa for 11+ years (SBM)

  • PMET reported lithium intercepts at the Vega Zone, including 55.0 m at 2.58% Li2O (PMT)

  • Morella has commenced Federal Court proceedings against the former Receivers and Managers in relation to the 2020 receivership of Altura (1MC)

  • Ramelius' 65,000m campaign returned multiple high-grade intercepts, including 35.3m at 16.0g/t Au at Never Never (RMS)

  • Estrella has commenced sample extraction at the Ira Miri manganese project to produce up to 30,000 tonnes of ore (ESR)

  • PTR’s resource drilling at the Rosewood titanium project returned intercepts including 42m at 11.9% HM from surface, and a maiden MRE expected Q2 (PTR)

  • Odyssey's drilling at the Tuckanarra gold project extended mineralisation outside the MRE, including 8m at 3.4 g/t Au from 63m (ODY)

  • GBM reported assays from Twin Hills gold project, including 29m at 3.13 g/t Au from 194m outside the MRE (GBM)

  • Aircore drilling at the Haflinger target in the Yandal gold project intersected 52m at 1.4 g/t Au (GML)

High Grade It

  • MinRes saw two of the most senior leaders in charge of operations and sales in the company’s iron ore unit exit the business last month (AFR)

  • Forrest makes $680m on-paper profit as gold price soars to record high (Australian)

  • WA government flipped on its vow by extending Griffin Coal a 5-year lifeline (AFR)

  • Gold fell after Trump withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on European nations and said a “framework of a future deal” over Greenland had been agreed (Bloomberg)

A message from Noah’s Rule

Over many years, we have observed that the most dangerous person around a board table, is the one convinced of what comes next.

Markets and mines can be very humbling when actuals are compared to past forecasts and funding plans.

Hedging isn’t about predicting the future. The future might be unknown, but your costs and plans are not.

Not certain it's different this time? Get in Touch with the Noah’s Rule team about a Risk Review.

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Major Rio Tinto shareholder AFIC says it wants Rio to explain how a merger with Glencore would provide immediate shareholder value to the group (AFR)

  • Forrestania holds more than 90% of Kula shares and has commenced compulsory acquisition (FRS)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • LinQ Minerals is raising $10m at 55c with a 1 for 2 attaching option (LNQ)

  • West Wits upsized a placement to $33.7m with Tribeca committing $10m (WWI)

  • Andean Precious Metals unveiled a C$83m bought deal (APM.T)

  • IsoEnergy announced a C$50m bought deal (ISO.T)

  • TerraCom completed a $60m entitlement offer (TER)

Word on the Decline

  • Take a listen to the Northern Star quarterly call from this morning if you have a spare 15 minutes. Go to the Q&A and tune in. Three downgrades in two weeks and the gloves come out from a few analysts 🍿

Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • US pitch for rare earths minnow ASM helps a grand ambition (AFR)

  • Inside Bauxite Mining: One of the World's Most Essential (Yet Unheard Of) Resources! (YouTube)

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