The Pre-Start
BHP’s copper, iron ore and met coal output were down 4%, 9% and 5% respectively on the previous quarter, with guidance unchanged. Mike Henry commented on a tightening copper market, expectations China’s decelerating growth and Jansen Stage 1 now being 73% complete (BHP)
South32 held guidance, as net cash declined by US$59m to US$64m on the back of continued Hermosa investment & a ~US$100m working capital build. Groote Eylandt insurance was settled for a total US$503m (100% basis) (S32)
Stanmore did 5.3Mt of ROM coal and 3.6Mt of saleable production, with the upper bound of guidance being lowered to reflect lower output at Isaac Plains. Net debt improved to by US$9m to US$90m (SMR)
Alcoa has announced support from the US and Australian governments for a possible gallium refinery in Western Australia (AAI)
Wildcat is undertaking metallurgical testwork on Chewy lithium & Tabba Tabba tantalum to potentially improve DFS outcomes (WC8)
Aurelia produced 10koz of gold as well as some copper, zinc & lead, reaffirming FY26 guidance. Cash closed down $22m, with $11m spent on growth (AMI)
PMET released a CV5 lithium-only feasibility study, on a maiden reserve of 84Mt at 1.26% Li2O. AISC’s got US$597/t (SC5.5) were outlined, for an NPV8 of US$1.2B and IRR of 18% using a long-term spod (SC5.5) proice of US$1,221/t (PMT)
Galan has expanded its tenure near Greenbushes (GLN)
Lotus claimed testwork supports an acid reduction of up to 70% at Letlhakane at a 6-8% reduction in uranium recovery (LOT)
Latitude 66 entered a binding agreement with Iondrive to apply its DES tech to cobalt concentrates for pretreatment & selective upgrading (LAT)
Brightstar shared assays from drilling at Menzies, hitting 7m at 5.7g/t gold from 230m at its Yunndaga deposit (BTR)
Sunrise increased its Syerston scandium ore reserve by 87% to 2Mt at 644ppm Sc, with a 550ppm cut-off grade used and US$1,500/kg long-term price (SRL)
Presentations were published by Antipa, Boss, Black Rock, Siren Gold, Aurelia, PMET
High Grade It
PM Anthony Albanese & President Trump have agreed to invest a combined US$8.5B in critical minerals projects and work together to loosen China’s grip (AFR) worth reading the statement from The White House
China’s shipments of rare-earth magnets to the US and the EU dropped in September, before Beijing escalated tensions (Bloomberg)
Shares in Deep Yellow have tanked after long-serving chief John Borshoff stepped down suddenly from the top job (West) Down 19% yesterday
BHP & Rio should join forces to prevent China’s emboldened commodities buyer from squeezing them on price, according to RBC (West)
Investors are racing to back rare earth companies, sending their shares to record highs, as Donald Trump’s attempt to break China’s stranglehold (FT)
Gold prices rose by over 2%, to US$4,356/oz (Reuters)
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Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Larvotto received a $723m takeover bid from USAC (AFR), with Dataroom calling it a potential starting point for further US-Aus deals (Australian)
Dataroom has talked up Gold Fields’ interest in BHP’s Nickel West sale, citing interest in adjacent land for potential gold deposits (Australian) lol again
IAMGOLD agrees to acquire Northern Superior for total consideration of US$300m consisting of C$0.19/sh cash plus 0.0991 IAMGOLD shares per SUP share, a 27.4% premium to the 20-day VWAP (IMG.TO) we wrote about this possibility in Word on the Decline in July
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
BHP looks set to call time on its Queensland coal partnership. The word on the decline is that the Big Australian intends to offload its 50% stake in the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) by the end of 2026
Queensland’s royalty overhaul has gutted margins, with BMA’s effective tax take now hovering near 70%. Metallurgical coal prices have softened, weather and geotechnical issues have consistently hit volumes, and even BHP admits the region’s cost base is now “unsustainable”
Got Word on the Decline? Simply reply or email [email protected]. We will always take your privacy seriously.
In the Weeds
Ex-Macquarie banker’s mine makes $234m after Trump shout-out (AFR) You guessed it, Dateline…
Big decisions which turned BHP into the most disciplined capital spender among global majors (Australian) Great read, though we’d question OZ Minerals as an honourable mention
Rare earths boom fuels ‘unprecedented’ demand for ASX miners (AFR)
The canary in the gold mine (Livewire) Observations on asset classes & gold
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Today’s Top Tweet
John Borshoff: “a farmer who plants young trees, knowing he'll never live to see them fully grown.” Yellowcake runs through his veins. Farewell, my sweet uranium prince. Enjoy your well-earned retirement. Over 🙏
— #Praise ꓘeK Inquisitor (#@PraiseKek)
8:51 AM • Oct 20, 2025
THE ONLY BONDS I TRUST ARE HYDROCARBON
— #Emanuel Ajay Datt (#@eadatt)
10:53 AM • Oct 20, 2025
Devil’s in the Detail
How good is this quote in the AFR article:
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The Dollar Cracks. Ferg’s Back. Why Hard Assets Win.
Companies mentioned: BHP, VALE, FMG, RIO, ZIM, SPD, THS.L, IMP.J, SBSW, VALT.L, MMI, CAY, BML, S32, UEC, UUUU, LEU, URA, GMKN.ME, NVDA, BP.L, SHEL.L
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